{"headline":"Investment Insights","summary":"Public research notes for liquid prediction-market setups with explicit rules, evidence, triggers, and invalidation.","insights":[{"id":"hormuz-traffic-normal-may15","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","category":"Geopolitics","market_id":"2176270","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","status":"Research watch","stance":"Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy.","side":"YES","yes_price":0.115,"no_price":0.885,"yes_pct":11.5,"no_pct":88.5,"volume_24h":125698.52,"volume_total":15627944.67,"liquidity":711913.64,"end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","execution":{"label":"Watch","score":59.8,"band":"watch","reason":"Usable for research, but needs confirmation or better depth.","days_left":64},"tracker":{"label":"Research tracker","published_at":"2026-05-02T00:00:00Z","reference_side":"YES","reference_pct":14.5,"current_pct":11.5,"move_pp":-3.0,"move_label":"Down","state":"Watch, no default buy","tone":"yellow","next_action":"Wait for resolution-source confirmation before increasing size.","thesis_score":35,"thesis_score_label":"Low until PortWatch improves","alert_thresholds":["YES below 10%: cheap optionality, still evidence-gated.","YES 10%-25%: watch zone; avoid chasing without resolution-source movement.","YES above 25%: requires strong confirmation from PortWatch/AIS and shipping/insurance sources."],"trigger_progress":[{"label":"Resolution-source traffic recovery","status":"pending","detail":"IMF PortWatch 7-day average needs to move toward 60 transit calls."},{"label":"Broad commercial traffic","status":"pending","detail":"Need evidence beyond isolated or specially cleared ship movements."},{"label":"Safety and insurance normalization","status":"blocked","detail":"Public reporting still points to mine-clearing and operator confidence issues."}]},"thesis":"YES has convex upside only if traffic normalizes fast enough for IMF PortWatch to print a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before May 15, 2026.","base_case":"The public evidence still supports NO as the base case: current reported traffic is far below the resolution threshold, and safety/insurance confidence has not normalized.","entry_discipline":["Do not chase after a headline spike without PortWatch/AIS confirmation.","Research-size only; cap any single public insight at 0.25%-0.50% of bankroll.","Only consider YES if your independent probability is materially above the live price after fees/slippage."],"confirmations":["IMF PortWatch 7-day average starts rising toward 60, not just one isolated ship movement.","Daily transit calls include broad commercial traffic, not only Iran-linked or specially cleared vessels.","Shipping, insurer, and official statements converge on safe passage rather than temporary corridors."],"blockers":["Reuters reported only seven ships crossed in the prior 24 hours on April 27, versus roughly 140 daily passages before February 28.","AP reported ongoing mine-clearing and confidence issues that can keep commercial operators and insurers sidelined.","The market resolves on IMF PortWatch data only; ships not reported there do not count."],"invalidation":"If PortWatch remains below roughly 20-30 daily calls into early May, or if new attacks/mining/insurance warnings persist, the YES thesis needs to be downgraded.","watch_items":["IMF PortWatch downloadable transit-call data for Strait of Hormuz.","Kpler, SynMax, MarineTraffic, Lloyd's List, and tanker-insurer updates.","US-Iran ceasefire/safe-passage statements and evidence that commercial carriers resume normal routing."],"sources":[{"label":"Polymarket market","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-may-15","note":"Live odds and market page."},{"label":"IMF PortWatch","url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730","note":"Resolution data source for Strait of Hormuz transit calls."},{"label":"Reuters via Al-Monitor, Apr 27","url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/04/shipping-traffic-through-hormuz-remains-muted-no-us-iran-deal-sight-data-shows","note":"Reported muted traffic and seven ships in 24 hours."},{"label":"AP, Apr 25","url":"https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-strait-hormuz-minesweeping-navy-underwater-edef3201f6e227c4b5e5edf1a28f6f77","note":"Mine-clearing and commercial confidence context."}],"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31?src=investment_insights","market_url":"/market/2176270","odds_url":"/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","updated_at":"2026-10-28T05:45:13.538642+00:00","watch_stats":{"watchers":3,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":3,"last_followed_at":"2026-10-12T08:44:02.939703+00:00"}},{"blockers":["Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"562828","no_price":0.365,"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-10-08T05:45:02.147957+00:00","sources":[{"note":"Price discovery watch, score 81/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-949","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-949?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-949?src=investment_insights","slug":"2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-949","active":true,"generated_from":"edge_engine","demand":{"title":"","outbound_clicks":1,"score":1,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":"2026-10-07T04:31:09.830000+00:00"},"liquidity":2841357.13,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","translation_status":"not_requested","stance":"Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","no_pct":36.5,"yes_pct":63.5,"volume_total":5073489.74,"generated_from_edge_type":"price_discovery","end_date":"2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":81,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 81/100, confidence 91/100, risk 15/100","reference_pct":63.5,"current_pct":63.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","alert_thresholds":["YES below 58.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 63.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-10-08T05:45:02.147957+00:00","state":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-ddd933cdbe20","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 63.5% / NO 36.5% with a setup score of 81/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"price_discovery","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":0.0,"score":80.7,"confidence":91.0},"market_url":"/market/562828","execution":{"score":76.8,"band":"clean","days_left":26,"reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing","The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value."],"volume_24h":221217.24,"category":"Politics","yes_price":0.635,"title":"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House","seo_slug":"2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house","generated_from_edge_id":"price_discovery:562828","odds_url":"/odds/2026-balance-of-power-d-senate-d-house-949","watch_stats":{"watchers":1,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":1,"last_followed_at":"2026-10-10T08:26:50.397489+00:00"}},{"blockers":["Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"677408","sources":[{"note":"Price discovery watch, score 85/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-10-10T05:45:02.189109+00:00","no_price":0.38,"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027","demand":{"title":"","outbound_clicks":0,"score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"liquidity":96256.09,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":1990934.17,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":38.0,"yes_pct":62.0,"stance":"Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"price_discovery","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":85,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 85/100, confidence 91/100, risk 15/100","reference_pct":62.0,"current_pct":62.0,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","alert_thresholds":["YES below 57.0%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 62.0%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-10-10T05:45:02.189109+00:00","state":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027-119c4212dc99","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 62.0% / NO 38.0% with a setup score of 85/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"price_discovery","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":0.0,"score":84.8,"confidence":91.0},"market_url":"/market/677408","execution":{"score":77.8,"band":"clean","days_left":81,"reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing","The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value."],"volume_24h":449945.07,"yes_price":0.62,"category":"Geopolitics","title":"China x Philippines military clash before 2027?","seo_slug":"china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027","generated_from_edge_id":"price_discovery:677408","odds_url":"/odds/china-x-philippines-military-clash-before-2027","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"1163699","sources":[{"note":"Catalyst momentum watch, score 97/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-09-14T05:45:02.029306+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","no_price":0.665,"liquidity":380123.73,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":16152305.74,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":66.5,"yes_pct":33.5,"stance":"Catalyst momentum watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"momentum_watch","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":97,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 97/100, confidence 71/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":33.5,"reference_pct":33.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift","alert_thresholds":["YES below 28.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 33.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-09-14T05:45:02.029306+00:00","state":"Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026-9b7cc48b2805","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +17.0pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 33.5% / NO 66.5% with a setup score of 97/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"momentum_watch","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":17.0,"score":97.2,"confidence":71.0},"market_url":"/market/1163699","execution":{"score":74.8,"days_left":108,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["YES moved +17.0pp across 47 recent snapshots","Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex."],"volume_24h":923702.57,"yes_price":0.335,"category":"Prediction markets","title":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","seo_slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","generated_from_edge_id":"momentum:1163699","odds_url":"/odds/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"908713","sources":[{"note":"Price discovery watch, score 94/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/fed-rate-hike-in-2026","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-08-08T05:45:14.717978+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/fed-rate-hike-in-2026?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"fed-rate-hike-in-2026","no_price":0.455,"liquidity":385030.33,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":6988313.01,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":45.5,"yes_pct":54.5,"stance":"Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"price_discovery","end_date":"2026-12-09T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":94,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 94/100, confidence 91/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":54.5,"reference_pct":54.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","alert_thresholds":["YES below 49.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 54.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-08-08T05:45:14.717978+00:00","state":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-fed-rate-hike-in-2026-88058b1905b9","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 54.5% / NO 45.5% with a setup score of 94/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"price_discovery","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":0.0,"score":94.1,"confidence":91.0},"market_url":"/market/908713","execution":{"score":82.9,"days_left":122,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing","The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value."],"volume_24h":620351.53,"yes_price":0.545,"category":"Economics","title":"Fed rate hike in 2026?","seo_slug":"fed-rate-hike-in-2026","generated_from_edge_id":"price_discovery:908713","odds_url":"/odds/fed-rate-hike-in-2026","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Integrity flags: extreme price.","Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. 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Always check resolution criteria before sizing."],"updated_at":"2026-10-28T05:45:12.942851+00:00","source":"voxodds.com","kalshi_data":"not available via API; see https://voxodds.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi"}