{"headline":"Investment Insights","summary":"Public research notes for liquid prediction-market setups with explicit rules, evidence, triggers, and invalidation.","insights":[{"blockers":["Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. 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The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"2176270","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-08-26T05:45:02.220777+00:00","sources":[{"note":"Price discovery watch, score 83/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31?src=investment_insights","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","active":true,"generated_from":"edge_engine","no_price":0.625,"liquidity":415237.91,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"NO","translation_status":"not_requested","stance":"Price discovery watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","yes_pct":37.5,"volume_total":9522884.16,"no_pct":62.5,"generated_from_edge_type":"price_discovery","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":83,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 83/100, confidence 91/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":62.5,"reference_pct":62.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","alert_thresholds":["NO below 57.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","NO near 62.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","YES strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-08-26T05:45:02.220777+00:00","state":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","reference_side":"NO"},"id":"edge-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-decemb-816b7a5af42c","thesis":"NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 37.5% / NO 62.5% with a setup score of 83/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"price_discovery","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":0.0,"spread_lab":{},"score":83.2,"confidence":91.0},"market_url":"/market/2176270","execution":{"band":"clean","score":77.5,"days_left":126,"reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing","The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value."],"volume_24h":336716.63,"category":"Prediction markets","yes_price":0.375,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","seo_slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","generated_from_edge_id":"price_discovery:2176270","odds_url":"/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"3128887","sources":[{"note":"Price discovery watch, score 87/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-08-26T05:45:02.220777+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831","no_price":0.595,"liquidity":91025.1,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"NO","volume_total":1793311.12,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":59.5,"yes_pct":40.5,"stance":"Price discovery watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"price_discovery","end_date":"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":87,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 87/100, confidence 91/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":59.5,"reference_pct":59.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","alert_thresholds":["NO below 54.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","NO near 59.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","YES strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-08-26T05:45:02.220777+00:00","state":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","reference_side":"NO"},"id":"edge-us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-75afa05b91ca","thesis":"NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 40.5% / NO 59.5% with a setup score of 87/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"price_discovery","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":0.0,"score":86.7,"spread_lab":{},"confidence":91.0},"market_url":"/market/3128887","execution":{"score":79.5,"days_left":35,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing","The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value."],"volume_24h":349969.63,"yes_price":0.405,"category":"Geopolitics","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?","seo_slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026","generated_from_edge_id":"price_discovery:3128887","odds_url":"/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-september-30-2026-20260727171615364-722-649-646-561-213-644-414-831","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.","Estimated net edge is 6.2pp before personal execution costs.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"blockers":["Limited side volume: $1,074.","Expiry mismatch: 1098 days.","Integrity flags: limited side volume, fill and settlement sensitive.","Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"1343456","no_price":0.795,"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-05-23T05:45:01.774504+00:00","sources":[{"note":"Cross-platform arb watch, score 99/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737","label":"Polymarket market"}],"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737?src=investment_insights","slug":"will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737","active":true,"generated_from":"edge_engine","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"liquidity":27187.78,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":403539.71,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":79.5,"yes_pct":20.5,"stance":"Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":99,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 99/100, confidence 90/100, risk 42/100","reference_pct":20.5,"current_pct":20.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","alert_thresholds":["YES below 15.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 20.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-05-23T05:45:01.774504+00:00","state":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-c5d9b13dbaf9","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Kalshi. Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 99/100.","edge_snapshot":{"type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","net_edge_pp":6.2,"risk":{"band":"low","score":42,"flags":["limited side volume","fill and settlement sensitive"]},"gross_edge_pp":11.1,"score":99.4,"spread_lab":{"blockers":["Limited side volume: $1,074.","Expiry mismatch: 1098 days."],"reasons":["Estimated net edge remains +6.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 11.1pp.","Strong title match (1.00).","Low integrity-risk score."],"checks":["Confirm rules and settlement sources match.","Check live order books before sizing.","Include fees, slippage, limits, and withdrawal timing.","If using both legs, confirm both fills before assuming hedge profit."],"label":"Research watch","min_side_volume":1074.2,"tone":"yellow","kalshi_bid_ask_spread_pp":1.2,"grade":"research_watch","match_similarity":1.0,"date_mismatch_days":1098,"execution_score":86,"action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing."},"confidence":90.0},"market_url":"/market/1343456","execution":{"score":59.9,"band":"clean","days_left":221,"reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"volume_24h":62014.99,"confirmations":["YES is cheaper on Kalshi","Estimated net edge remains +6.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 11.1pp.","Strong title match (1.00)."],"yes_price":0.205,"category":"Politics","title":"Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?","seo_slug":"will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026","generated_from_edge_id":"spread:1343456:KXNEXTUKPM-30-AR","odds_url":"/odds/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"3866000","sources":[{"note":"Price discovery watch, score 87/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-ethereum-dip-to-2250-by-december-31-2026","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-ethereum-dip-to-2250-by-december-31-2026?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-09-08T05:45:02.007495+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-ethereum-dip-to-2250-by-december-31-2026?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"will-ethereum-dip-to-2250-by-december-31-2026","no_price":0.43,"liquidity":24280.3,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":440709.24,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":43.0,"yes_pct":57.0,"stance":"Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"price_discovery","end_date":"2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":87,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 87/100, confidence 91/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":57.0,"reference_pct":57.0,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","alert_thresholds":["YES below 52.0%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 57.0%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-09-08T05:45:02.007495+00:00","state":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-ethereum-dip-to-2-250-by-december-31-2026-224e7087aa5e","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 57.0% / NO 43.0% with a setup score of 87/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"price_discovery","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":0.0,"score":87.3,"spread_lab":{},"confidence":91.0},"market_url":"/market/3866000","execution":{"score":81.2,"days_left":114,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing","The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value."],"volume_24h":186648.7,"yes_price":0.57,"category":"Crypto","title":"Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?","seo_slug":"will-ethereum-dip-to-2-250-by-december-31-2026","generated_from_edge_id":"price_discovery:3866000","odds_url":"/odds/will-ethereum-dip-to-2250-by-december-31-2026","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"2747434","sources":[{"note":"Catalyst momentum watch, score 88/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-08-01T05:45:02.265344+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31","no_price":0.395,"liquidity":70196.35,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"NO","volume_total":932066.05,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":39.5,"yes_pct":60.5,"stance":"Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"momentum_watch","end_date":"2026-12-31T20:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":88,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 88/100, confidence 71/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":39.5,"reference_pct":39.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift","alert_thresholds":["NO below 34.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","NO near 39.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","YES strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-08-01T05:45:02.265344+00:00","state":"Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift","reference_side":"NO"},"id":"edge-will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-december-31-4de2bd27cc14","thesis":"NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots. 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The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"561262","sources":[{"note":"Cross-platform arb watch, score 100/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-05-08T05:45:01.904818+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","no_price":0.9895,"liquidity":269155.23,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":5259341.12,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":99.0,"yes_pct":1.1,"stance":"Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":100,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 100/100, confidence 67/100, risk 42/100","current_pct":1.1,"reference_pct":1.1,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","alert_thresholds":["YES below 1.0%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 1.1%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-05-08T05:45:01.904818+00:00","state":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-ele-212cc28fc0a4","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":86.2,"type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","risk":{"score":42,"band":"low","flags":["limited side volume","fill and settlement sensitive"]},"gross_edge_pp":91.4,"score":100.0,"spread_lab":{"blockers":["Limited side volume: $2,411.","Expiry mismatch: 25 days."],"reasons":["Estimated net edge remains +86.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.4pp.","Low integrity-risk score."],"action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","label":"Research watch","min_side_volume":2410.77,"tone":"yellow","kalshi_bid_ask_spread_pp":0.1,"grade":"research_watch","match_similarity":0.775,"date_mismatch_days":25,"execution_score":100,"checks":["Confirm rules and settlement sources match.","Check live order books before sizing.","Include fees, slippage, limits, and withdrawal timing.","If using both legs, confirm both fills before assuming hedge profit."]},"confidence":67.0},"market_url":"/market/561262","execution":{"score":40.7,"days_left":913,"band":"fragile","reason":"Quote can move or fill badly; verify depth before any sizing.","label":"Fragile"},"confirmations":["YES is cheaper on Polymarket","Estimated net edge remains +86.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.4pp.","Low integrity-risk score."],"volume_24h":55095.02,"yes_price":0.0105,"category":"Politics","title":"Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","seo_slug":"will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","generated_from_edge_id":"spread:561262:KXPRESELECTIONOCCUR-28","odds_url":"/odds/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"601819","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-09-12T05:45:02.309077+00:00","sources":[{"note":"Price discovery watch, score 93/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election?src=investment_insights","slug":"will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","active":true,"generated_from":"edge_engine","no_price":0.515,"liquidity":243674.51,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"NO","translation_status":"not_requested","stance":"Price discovery watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","yes_pct":48.5,"volume_total":10790916.51,"no_pct":51.5,"generated_from_edge_type":"price_discovery","end_date":"2026-10-04T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":93,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 93/100, confidence 91/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":51.5,"reference_pct":51.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","alert_thresholds":["NO below 46.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","NO near 51.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","YES strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-09-12T05:45:02.309077+00:00","state":"Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side","reference_side":"NO"},"id":"edge-will-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilia-8e797932df69","thesis":"NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 48.5% / NO 51.5% with a setup score of 93/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"price_discovery","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":0.0,"spread_lab":{},"score":93.4,"confidence":91.0},"market_url":"/market/601819","execution":{"band":"clean","score":85.0,"days_left":21,"reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing","The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value."],"volume_24h":196054.01,"category":"Politics","yes_price":0.485,"title":"Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","seo_slug":"will-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","generated_from_edge_id":"price_discovery:601819","odds_url":"/odds/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Expiry mismatch: 366 days.","Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.","Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.","Estimated net edge is 3.5pp before personal execution costs.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"561234","sources":[{"note":"Cross-platform arb watch, score 82/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-05-08T05:45:01.904818+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election?src=investment_insights","slug":"will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","active":true,"generated_from":"edge_engine","no_price":0.8525,"liquidity":134431.94,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","translation_status":"not_requested","stance":"Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","yes_pct":14.8,"volume_total":9703731.32,"no_pct":85.2,"generated_from_edge_type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":82,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 82/100, confidence 90/100, risk 26/100","current_pct":14.8,"reference_pct":14.8,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","alert_thresholds":["YES below 9.8%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 14.8%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-05-08T05:45:01.904818+00:00","state":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-electi-d406e0133baf","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 14.8% / NO 85.2% with a setup score of 82/100.","edge_snapshot":{"type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","net_edge_pp":3.5,"risk":{"score":26,"band":"low","flags":["fill and settlement sensitive"]},"gross_edge_pp":6.8,"score":82.0,"spread_lab":{"blockers":["Expiry mismatch: 366 days."],"reasons":["Estimated net edge remains +3.5pp after friction.","Gross spread is 6.8pp.","Both sides show usable volume: $56,562+.","Strong title match (0.96)."],"label":"Research watch","checks":["Confirm rules and settlement sources match.","Check live order books before sizing.","Include fees, slippage, limits, and withdrawal timing.","If using both legs, confirm both fills before assuming hedge profit."],"min_side_volume":56561.77,"tone":"yellow","kalshi_bid_ask_spread_pp":1.0,"grade":"research_watch","match_similarity":0.965,"date_mismatch_days":366,"execution_score":62,"action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing."},"confidence":90.0},"market_url":"/market/561234","execution":{"score":62.0,"days_left":913,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["YES is cheaper on Polymarket","Estimated net edge remains +3.5pp after friction.","Gross spread is 6.8pp.","Both sides show usable volume: $56,562+."],"volume_24h":59007.69,"category":"Politics","yes_price":0.1475,"title":"Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","seo_slug":"will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","generated_from_edge_id":"spread:561234:KXPRESPERSON-28-MRUB","odds_url":"/odds/will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. 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Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"momentum_watch","risk":{"band":"low","score":24,"flags":["close to close"]},"gross_edge_pp":24.0,"spread_lab":{},"score":100.0,"confidence":69.0},"market_url":"/market/2252244","execution":{"band":"clean","score":58.9,"days_left":3,"reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["NO moved -24.0pp across 48 recent snapshots","Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex."],"volume_24h":7045672.84,"category":"Economics","yes_price":0.205,"generated_from_edge_id":"momentum:2252244","seo_slug":"will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting","title":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?","odds_url":"/odds/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Expiry mismatch: 25 days.","Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.","Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.","Estimated net edge is 87.2pp before personal execution costs.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"561260","sources":[{"note":"Cross-platform arb watch, score 100/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-05-06T05:45:01.167183+00:00","no_price":0.9895,"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","liquidity":966073.26,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","translation_status":"not_requested","stance":"Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","no_pct":99.0,"yes_pct":1.1,"volume_total":4521260.97,"generated_from_edge_type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":100,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 100/100, confidence 71/100, risk 26/100","reference_pct":1.1,"current_pct":1.1,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","alert_thresholds":["YES below 1.0%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 1.1%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-05-06T05:45:01.167183+00:00","state":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-elec-d1ebb7e9d9fa","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":87.2,"type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","risk":{"score":26,"band":"low","flags":["fill and settlement sensitive"]},"gross_edge_pp":91.5,"score":100.0,"spread_lab":{"blockers":["Expiry mismatch: 25 days."],"reasons":["Estimated net edge remains +87.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.5pp.","Minimum side volume is $5,048.","Low integrity-risk score."],"label":"Research watch","action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","min_side_volume":5048.12,"tone":"yellow","kalshi_bid_ask_spread_pp":0.1,"grade":"research_watch","match_similarity":0.777,"date_mismatch_days":25,"execution_score":100,"checks":["Confirm rules and settlement sources match.","Check live order books before sizing.","Include fees, slippage, limits, and withdrawal timing.","If using both legs, confirm both fills before assuming hedge profit."]},"confidence":71.0},"market_url":"/market/561260","execution":{"score":40.7,"days_left":915,"band":"fragile","reason":"Quote can move or fill badly; verify depth before any sizing.","label":"Fragile"},"volume_24h":56128.41,"confirmations":["YES is cheaper on Polymarket","Estimated net edge remains +87.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.5pp.","Minimum side volume is $5,048."],"yes_price":0.0105,"category":"Politics","title":"Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","seo_slug":"will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","generated_from_edge_id":"spread:561260:KXPRESELECTIONOCCUR-28","odds_url":"/odds/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}}],"hot_insights":[],"research_queue":[],"stats":{"total":20,"active":20,"research_watch":20,"tradable_now":0,"watchers_sample":0,"watched_insights":0,"research_queue_sample":0,"market_demand_score_sample":0},"guardrails":["These are research notes, not individualized financial advice.","Any market can resolve to zero; size positions so a total loss is acceptable.","Rules beat headlines. Always check resolution criteria before sizing."],"updated_at":"2026-09-12T14:00:16.124837+00:00","source":"voxodds.com"}