{"source":"voxodds.com","updated_at":"2026-08-13T08:25:39.698245+00:00","summary":"Live research workflow combining active theses, market demand, watched setups, alert events, and paper-tracker entry points.","stats":{"total":14,"active":14,"research_watch":14,"tradable_now":0,"watchers_sample":2,"watched_insights":1,"research_queue_sample":0,"market_demand_score_sample":0},"active_insights":[{"id":"hormuz-traffic-normal-may15","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?","category":"Geopolitics","market_id":"2774056","slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","status":"Research watch","stance":"Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy.","side":"YES","yes_price":0.0275,"no_price":0.9725,"yes_pct":2.8,"no_pct":97.2,"volume_24h":411118.36,"volume_total":12629114.68,"liquidity":655813.67,"end_date":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","execution":{"label":"Fragile","score":41.9,"band":"fragile","reason":"Quote can move or fill badly; verify depth before any sizing.","days_left":17},"tracker":{"label":"Research tracker","published_at":"2026-05-02T00:00:00Z","reference_side":"YES","reference_pct":14.5,"current_pct":2.8,"move_pp":-11.7,"move_label":"Down","state":"Cheap, still unconfirmed","tone":"emerald","next_action":"Only research-size entries make sense unless the transit data starts turning.","thesis_score":35,"thesis_score_label":"Low until PortWatch improves","alert_thresholds":["YES below 10%: cheap optionality, still evidence-gated.","YES 10%-25%: watch zone; avoid chasing without resolution-source movement.","YES above 25%: requires strong confirmation from PortWatch/AIS and shipping/insurance sources."],"trigger_progress":[{"label":"Resolution-source traffic recovery","status":"pending","detail":"IMF PortWatch 7-day average needs to move toward 60 transit calls."},{"label":"Broad commercial traffic","status":"pending","detail":"Need evidence beyond isolated or specially cleared ship movements."},{"label":"Safety and insurance normalization","status":"blocked","detail":"Public reporting still points to mine-clearing and operator confidence issues."}]},"thesis":"YES has convex upside only if traffic normalizes fast enough for IMF PortWatch to print a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before May 15, 2026.","base_case":"The public evidence still supports NO as the base case: current reported traffic is far below the resolution threshold, and safety/insurance confidence has not normalized.","entry_discipline":["Do not chase after a headline spike without PortWatch/AIS confirmation.","Research-size only; cap any single public insight at 0.25%-0.50% of bankroll.","Only consider YES if your independent probability is materially above the live price after fees/slippage."],"confirmations":["IMF PortWatch 7-day average starts rising toward 60, not just one isolated ship movement.","Daily transit calls include broad commercial traffic, not only Iran-linked or specially cleared vessels.","Shipping, insurer, and official statements converge on safe passage rather than temporary corridors."],"blockers":["Reuters reported only seven ships crossed in the prior 24 hours on April 27, versus roughly 140 daily passages before February 28.","AP reported ongoing mine-clearing and confidence issues that can keep commercial operators and insurers sidelined.","The market resolves on IMF PortWatch data only; ships not reported there do not count."],"invalidation":"If PortWatch remains below roughly 20-30 daily calls into early May, or if new attacks/mining/insurance warnings persist, the YES thesis needs to be downgraded.","watch_items":["IMF PortWatch downloadable transit-call data for Strait of Hormuz.","Kpler, SynMax, MarineTraffic, Lloyd's List, and tanker-insurer updates.","US-Iran ceasefire/safe-passage statements and evidence that commercial carriers resume normal routing."],"sources":[{"label":"Polymarket market","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-may-15","note":"Live odds and market page."},{"label":"IMF PortWatch","url":"https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730","note":"Resolution data source for Strait of Hormuz transit calls."},{"label":"Reuters via Al-Monitor, Apr 27","url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/04/shipping-traffic-through-hormuz-remains-muted-no-us-iran-deal-sight-data-shows","note":"Reported muted traffic and seven ships in 24 hours."},{"label":"AP, Apr 25","url":"https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-strait-hormuz-minesweeping-navy-underwater-edef3201f6e227c4b5e5edf1a28f6f77","note":"Mine-clearing and commercial confidence context."}],"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320?src=investment_insights","market_url":"/market/2774056","odds_url":"/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320","updated_at":"2026-08-13T08:25:39.901523+00:00","watch_stats":{"watchers":2,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":2,"last_followed_at":"2026-05-28T06:31:31.893776+00:00"}},{"blockers":["Integrity flags: close to close.","Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a overreaction fade watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"2910437","sources":[{"note":"Overreaction fade watch, score 100/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-08-10T05:45:02.122711+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676","no_price":0.865,"liquidity":75438.28,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":1733533.4,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":86.5,"yes_pct":13.5,"stance":"Overreaction fade watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"overreaction_fade_watch","end_date":"2026-08-15T23:59:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":100,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 100/100, confidence 61/100, risk 24/100","current_pct":13.5,"reference_pct":13.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Compare the move against primary sources before taking the other side","alert_thresholds":["YES below 8.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 13.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-08-10T05:45:02.122711+00:00","state":"Compare the move against primary sources before taking the other side","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-20-517fb9fb9c2c","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO repriced -45.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak. Current market pricing is roughly YES 13.5% / NO 86.5% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"overreaction_fade_watch","risk":{"score":24,"band":"low","flags":["close to close"]},"gross_edge_pp":45.0,"score":100.0,"spread_lab":{},"confidence":61.0},"market_url":"/market/2910437","execution":{"score":54.2,"days_left":5,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["NO repriced -45.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak","Fast markets can overreact to headlines before traders read the exact resolution rules."],"volume_24h":251150.35,"yes_price":0.135,"category":"Geopolitics","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?","seo_slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026","generated_from_edge_id":"fade_watch:2910437","odds_url":"/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-15-2026-20260713152715083-347-987-697-628-574-676","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"2910438","sources":[{"note":"Catalyst momentum watch, score 100/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729?via=soft-dev-fz-llc","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-08-10T05:45:02.122711+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729","no_price":0.605,"liquidity":73396.43,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"NO","volume_total":868776.6,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":60.5,"yes_pct":39.5,"stance":"Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"momentum_watch","end_date":"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":100,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 100/100, confidence 71/100, risk 15/100","current_pct":60.5,"reference_pct":60.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift","alert_thresholds":["NO below 55.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","NO near 60.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","YES strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-08-10T05:45:02.122711+00:00","state":"Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift","reference_side":"NO"},"id":"edge-us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-20-ff5cf8630412","thesis":"NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -36.0pp across 48 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 39.5% / NO 60.5% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":0.0,"type":"momentum_watch","risk":{"score":15,"band":"low","flags":[]},"gross_edge_pp":36.0,"score":100.0,"spread_lab":{},"confidence":71.0},"market_url":"/market/2910438","execution":{"score":78.9,"days_left":21,"band":"clean","reason":"Better depth and less extreme pricing for research.","label":"Cleaner"},"confirmations":["NO moved -36.0pp across 48 recent snapshots","Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex."],"volume_24h":240722.93,"yes_price":0.395,"category":"Geopolitics","title":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?","seo_slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026","generated_from_edge_id":"momentum:2910438","odds_url":"/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Expiry mismatch: 25 days.","Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.","Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.","Estimated net edge is 87.2pp before personal execution costs.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"561260","sources":[{"note":"Cross-platform arb watch, score 100/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-05-06T05:45:01.167183+00:00","no_price":0.9895,"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","liquidity":966073.26,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","translation_status":"not_requested","stance":"Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","no_pct":99.0,"yes_pct":1.1,"volume_total":4521260.97,"generated_from_edge_type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":100,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 100/100, confidence 71/100, risk 26/100","reference_pct":1.1,"current_pct":1.1,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","alert_thresholds":["YES below 1.0%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 1.1%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-05-06T05:45:01.167183+00:00","state":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-elec-d1ebb7e9d9fa","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":87.2,"type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","risk":{"score":26,"band":"low","flags":["fill and settlement sensitive"]},"gross_edge_pp":91.5,"score":100.0,"spread_lab":{"blockers":["Expiry mismatch: 25 days."],"reasons":["Estimated net edge remains +87.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.5pp.","Minimum side volume is $5,048.","Low integrity-risk score."],"label":"Research watch","action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","min_side_volume":5048.12,"tone":"yellow","kalshi_bid_ask_spread_pp":0.1,"grade":"research_watch","match_similarity":0.777,"date_mismatch_days":25,"execution_score":100,"checks":["Confirm rules and settlement sources match.","Check live order books before sizing.","Include fees, slippage, limits, and withdrawal timing.","If using both legs, confirm both fills before assuming hedge profit."]},"confidence":71.0},"market_url":"/market/561260","execution":{"score":40.7,"days_left":915,"band":"fragile","reason":"Quote can move or fill badly; verify depth before any sizing.","label":"Fragile"},"volume_24h":56128.41,"confirmations":["YES is cheaper on Polymarket","Estimated net edge remains +87.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.5pp.","Minimum side volume is $5,048."],"yes_price":0.0105,"category":"Politics","title":"Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","seo_slug":"will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","generated_from_edge_id":"spread:561260:KXPRESELECTIONOCCUR-28","odds_url":"/odds/will-thomas-massie-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"blockers":["Limited side volume: $2,411.","Expiry mismatch: 25 days.","Integrity flags: limited side volume, fill and settlement sensitive.","Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent."],"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.","Estimated net edge is 86.2pp before personal execution costs.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"561262","sources":[{"note":"Cross-platform arb watch, score 100/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","label":"Polymarket market"}],"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-05-08T05:45:01.904818+00:00","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election?src=investment_insights","generated_from":"edge_engine","active":true,"slug":"will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","no_price":0.9895,"liquidity":269155.23,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":5259341.12,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":99.0,"yes_pct":1.1,"stance":"Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","end_date":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":100,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 100/100, confidence 67/100, risk 42/100","current_pct":1.1,"reference_pct":1.1,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","alert_thresholds":["YES below 1.0%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 1.1%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-05-08T05:45:01.904818+00:00","state":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-ele-212cc28fc0a4","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.","edge_snapshot":{"net_edge_pp":86.2,"type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","risk":{"score":42,"band":"low","flags":["limited side volume","fill and settlement sensitive"]},"gross_edge_pp":91.4,"score":100.0,"spread_lab":{"blockers":["Limited side volume: $2,411.","Expiry mismatch: 25 days."],"reasons":["Estimated net edge remains +86.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.4pp.","Low integrity-risk score."],"action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","label":"Research watch","min_side_volume":2410.77,"tone":"yellow","kalshi_bid_ask_spread_pp":0.1,"grade":"research_watch","match_similarity":0.775,"date_mismatch_days":25,"execution_score":100,"checks":["Confirm rules and settlement sources match.","Check live order books before sizing.","Include fees, slippage, limits, and withdrawal timing.","If using both legs, confirm both fills before assuming hedge profit."]},"confidence":67.0},"market_url":"/market/561262","execution":{"score":40.7,"days_left":913,"band":"fragile","reason":"Quote can move or fill badly; verify depth before any sizing.","label":"Fragile"},"confirmations":["YES is cheaper on Polymarket","Estimated net edge remains +86.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 91.4pp.","Low integrity-risk score."],"volume_24h":55095.02,"yes_price":0.0105,"category":"Politics","title":"Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","seo_slug":"will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","generated_from_edge_id":"spread:561262:KXPRESELECTIONOCCUR-28","odds_url":"/odds/will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election","watch_stats":{"watchers":0,"local_follows":0,"email_followers":0,"last_followed_at":""}},{"entry_discipline":["Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.","Estimated net edge is 6.2pp before personal execution costs.","Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.","Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price."],"blockers":["Limited side volume: $1,074.","Expiry mismatch: 1098 days.","Integrity flags: limited side volume, fill and settlement sensitive.","Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent."],"base_case":"Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.","invalidation":"Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.","watch_items":["Resolution wording and official source-of-truth for the market.","Live Polymarket order-book depth and recent fill quality.","Whether the catalyst is primary-source evidence or just headline momentum.","VoxOdds Edge score, risk flags, and spread-lab grade on the next scan."],"market_id":"1343456","no_price":0.795,"status":"Research watch","updated_at":"2026-05-23T05:45:01.774504+00:00","sources":[{"note":"Cross-platform arb watch, score 99/100.","url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","label":"VoxOdds Edge"},{"note":"Live odds, execution lens, and market context.","url":"https://voxodds.com/odds/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737","label":"VoxOdds market analysis"},{"note":"Live market and order book.","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737","label":"Polymarket market"}],"trade_url":"/go/polymarket/will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737?src=investment_insights","slug":"will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-in-2026-737","active":true,"generated_from":"edge_engine","demand":{"outbound_clicks":0,"title":"","score":0,"local_follows":0,"email_follows":0,"last_signal_at":""},"liquidity":27187.78,"edge_url":"https://voxodds.com/edge?min_edge=0&include_risky=true","generated":true,"side":"YES","volume_total":403539.71,"translation_status":"not_requested","no_pct":79.5,"yes_pct":20.5,"stance":"Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.","generated_from_edge_type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","end_date":"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","tracker":{"thesis_score":99,"thesis_score_label":"Edge 99/100, confidence 90/100, risk 42/100","reference_pct":20.5,"current_pct":20.5,"label":"Edge tracker","trigger_progress":[{"detail":"Read the resolution criteria before relying on the headline.","status":"pending","label":"Rules match the thesis"},{"detail":"Confirm the quoted price can actually be filled without unacceptable slippage.","status":"pending","label":"Depth is real"},{"detail":"Find the primary source or data point behind the market move.","status":"pending","label":"Catalyst confirmed"}],"next_action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","alert_thresholds":["YES below 15.5%: reassess whether the edge improved or the thesis broke.","YES near 20.5%: only research-size exposure unless confirmations improve.","NO strength or worsening depth: reduce confidence and review invalidation."],"move_label":"New","tone":"yellow","move_pp":0.0,"published_at":"2026-05-23T05:45:01.774504+00:00","state":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.","reference_side":"YES"},"id":"edge-will-angela-rayner-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-the-c5d9b13dbaf9","thesis":"YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Kalshi. Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 99/100.","edge_snapshot":{"type":"cross_platform_arb_watch","net_edge_pp":6.2,"risk":{"band":"low","score":42,"flags":["limited side volume","fill and settlement sensitive"]},"gross_edge_pp":11.1,"score":99.4,"spread_lab":{"blockers":["Limited side volume: $1,074.","Expiry mismatch: 1098 days."],"reasons":["Estimated net edge remains +6.2pp after friction.","Gross spread is 11.1pp.","Strong title match (1.00).","Low integrity-risk score."],"checks":["Confirm rules and settlement sources match.","Check live order books before sizing.","Include fees, slippage, limits, and withdrawal timing.","If using both legs, confirm both fills before assuming hedge profit."],"label":"Research watch","min_side_volume":1074.2,"tone":"yellow","kalshi_bid_ask_spread_pp":1.2,"grade":"research_watch","match_similarity":1.0,"date_mismatch_days":1098,"execution_score":86,"action":"Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before 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Always check resolution criteria before sizing."],"links":{"html":"https://voxodds.com/research-desk","investment_insights":"https://voxodds.com/investment-insights","paper_trades":"https://voxodds.com/paper-trades","edge":"https://voxodds.com/edge"}}