{"rollup":{"receipts_total":49874,"brier_sample":6336,"by_model":[{"model":"blend-mkt50-v1","market_brier":0.1277,"n":5604,"accuracy":0.777,"beats_market_pct":0.503,"brier":0.1407},{"model":"blend-mkt75-v1","market_brier":0.1271,"n":4946,"accuracy":0.812,"beats_market_pct":0.495,"brier":0.1303},{"model":"blend-mkt90-v1","market_brier":0.1259,"n":4789,"accuracy":0.814,"beats_market_pct":0.495,"brier":0.1266},{"model":"gemini-2.5-flash","market_brier":0.1321,"n":6336,"accuracy":0.739,"beats_market_pct":0.543,"brier":0.1819},{"model":"gemini-2.5-flash-cal2","market_brier":0.1256,"n":3789,"accuracy":0.795,"beats_market_pct":0.449,"brier":0.1352},{"model":"gemini-3.7-flash","market_brier":0.154,"n":1337,"accuracy":0.758,"beats_market_pct":0.435,"brier":0.1725},{"model":"gemini-3.7-flash-cal2","market_brier":0.1545,"n":1334,"accuracy":0.786,"beats_market_pct":0.454,"brier":0.1547}],"curve_crossed":null,"sharpest_stat":"Across 6336 scored forecasts, VoxOdds AI (Brier 0.182) trailed the market price (Brier 0.132) taken at the same moment. A sweep over every AI/market mixture weight (n=6336) finds no weight of AI improves on the price — the market alone is optimal so far.","ai_brier_mean":0.181914,"calibration_by_confidence":[{"market_brier":0.0002,"n":8,"bucket":"0-10%","realized_pct":1.0,"ai_brier":0.9413},{"market_brier":0.9216,"n":1,"bucket":"20-30%","realized_pct":1.0,"ai_brier":0.64},{"market_brier":0.1728,"n":419,"bucket":"50-60%","realized_pct":0.566,"ai_brier":0.2518},{"market_brier":0.2126,"n":1049,"bucket":"60-70%","realized_pct":0.451,"ai_brier":0.2615},{"market_brier":0.1912,"n":1193,"bucket":"70-80%","realized_pct":0.593,"ai_brier":0.2294},{"market_brier":0.2187,"n":976,"bucket":"80-90%","realized_pct":0.593,"ai_brier":0.2321},{"market_brier":0.0368,"n":2690,"bucket":"90-100%","realized_pct":0.858,"ai_brier":0.0983}],"new_scores_this_run":1245,"scored":6336,"updated_at":"2026-08-20T23:30:02.751746+00:00","scored_all_models":28135,"methodology":"Hourly AI forecasts are stored with the contemporaneous market price (append-only receipts). 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No receipt is dropped silently.","market_brier_mean":0.132098,"unscorable":12034,"ai_accuracy":0.7393,"ai_beats_market_pct":0.5434,"performance_by_market_line":[{"market_brier":0.0007,"n":1653,"bucket":"mkt 95%+","ai_edge":-0.0827,"ai_brier":0.0833},{"market_brier":0.0164,"n":1625,"bucket":"mkt 80-95%","ai_edge":-0.0623,"ai_brier":0.0787},{"market_brier":0.0935,"n":1187,"bucket":"mkt 60-80%","ai_edge":-0.0137,"ai_brier":0.1072},{"market_brier":0.2305,"n":1058,"bucket":"mkt 40-60%","ai_edge":-0.0432,"ai_brier":0.2737},{"market_brier":0.5589,"n":813,"bucket":"mkt <40% (upset)","ai_edge":-0.0193,"ai_brier":0.5782}],"unscorable_reasons":{"market_expired_unresolved":11975,"ambiguous_resolution":15,"unmatched_outcome_text":44},"markets_covered":1507,"dose_response":[{"model":"gemini-2.5-flash","n":6336,"deficit":0.0498,"weight":"0% (raw AI)"},{"model":"blend-mkt50-v1","n":5604,"deficit":0.013,"weight":"50% market"},{"model":"blend-mkt75-v1","n":4946,"deficit":0.0032,"weight":"75% 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Deterministic scoring, append-only receipts. Not financial advice."}