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A sweep over every AI/market mixture weight (n=6442) finds no weight of AI improves on the price — the market alone is optimal so far.","ai_brier_mean":0.182316,"calibration_by_confidence":[{"market_brier":0.0002,"n":8,"bucket":"0-10%","realized_pct":1.0,"ai_brier":0.9413},{"market_brier":0.9216,"n":1,"bucket":"20-30%","realized_pct":1.0,"ai_brier":0.64},{"market_brier":0.1728,"n":419,"bucket":"50-60%","realized_pct":0.566,"ai_brier":0.2518},{"market_brier":0.2121,"n":1078,"bucket":"60-70%","realized_pct":0.442,"ai_brier":0.2647},{"market_brier":0.1893,"n":1225,"bucket":"70-80%","realized_pct":0.589,"ai_brier":0.2321},{"market_brier":0.2179,"n":981,"bucket":"80-90%","realized_pct":0.595,"ai_brier":0.231},{"market_brier":0.0363,"n":2730,"bucket":"90-100%","realized_pct":0.86,"ai_brier":0.0969}],"new_scores_this_run":1572,"scored":6442,"updated_at":"2026-10-02T23:30:03.544731+00:00","scored_all_models":60165,"methodology":"Hourly AI forecasts are stored with the contemporaneous market price (append-only receipts). 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No receipt is dropped silently.","market_brier_mean":0.131413,"unscorable":43782,"ai_accuracy":0.7369,"ai_beats_market_pct":0.538,"performance_by_market_line":[{"market_brier":0.0007,"n":1691,"bucket":"mkt 95%+","ai_edge":-0.0809,"ai_brier":0.0815},{"market_brier":0.0164,"n":1632,"bucket":"mkt 80-95%","ai_edge":-0.0622,"ai_brier":0.0786},{"market_brier":0.0942,"n":1222,"bucket":"mkt 60-80%","ai_edge":-0.0201,"ai_brier":0.1142},{"market_brier":0.2299,"n":1084,"bucket":"mkt 40-60%","ai_edge":-0.0456,"ai_brier":0.2755},{"market_brier":0.5589,"n":813,"bucket":"mkt <40% (upset)","ai_edge":-0.0193,"ai_brier":0.5782}],"unscorable_reasons":{"no_probability":1,"market_expired_unresolved":43608,"ambiguous_resolution":104,"unmatched_outcome_text":69},"markets_covered":1514,"dose_response":[{"model":"gemini-2.5-flash","n":6442,"deficit":0.0509,"weight":"0% (raw AI)"},{"model":"blend-mkt50-v1","n":11943,"deficit":0.0072,"weight":"50% market"},{"model":"blend-mkt75-v1","n":11261,"deficit":0.0016,"weight":"75% market"},{"model":"blend-mkt90-v1","n":11102,"deficit":0.0003,"weight":"90% market"},{"model":"benchmark","n":6442,"deficit":0.0,"weight":"100% market (the price)"}],"market_accuracy":0.8139,"weight_sweep":{"market_brier":0.131414,"n":6442,"brier_at_optimum":0.131414,"ai_brier":0.182316,"optimal_ai_weight":0.0,"improvement_vs_market":0.0,"note":"In-sample sweep; the live blend variants are the out-of-sample check."},"receipts_pending_resolution":15596},"recent_scores":[{"scored_at":"2026-10-04T23:30:02.688537+00:00","ai_beats_market":true,"scorable":true,"p_ai_winner":0.66,"binary":true,"brier_market":0.119025,"model":"gemini-3.7-flash-cal2","market_id":"5247411","market_correct":true,"predicted_outcome":"Vitality","ai_correct":true,"predicted_at":"2026-10-04T18:07:25.577256+00:00","brier_ai":0.1156,"predicted_prob":0.66,"winner":"Vitality","p_market_winner":0.655,"question":"Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - 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Deterministic scoring, append-only receipts. Not financial advice."}