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50 live markets • Updated hourly • Odds from Polymarket & Kalshi

Strategy signals Any signal 6 Needs confirmation 5 Strategy watch 1 Open playbook →
Investment insight

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy. YES 23.5% · Research watch

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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Economics Strategy watch
46%
Yes
55%
No
$416.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Economics Needs confirmation
52%
Yes
48%
No
$321.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Economics
95%
Yes
5%
No
$131.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Economics
60%
Yes
40%
No
$121.2K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Economics
92%
Yes
8%
No
$116.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?
Economics
4%
Up
96%
Down
$113.7K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Economics
53%
Yes
47%
No
$113.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 26?
Economics
90%
Up
10%
Down
$101.5K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Economics
70%
Yes
30%
No
$100.3K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 19?
Economics
97%
Up
3%
Down
$95.1K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Economics
66%
Yes
34%
No
$87.8K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18?
Economics
80%
Up
20%
Down
$87.0K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?
Economics
99%
Up
1%
Down
$84.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Economics
5%
Yes
95%
No
$84.2K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21?
Economics
92%
Up
8%
Down
$79.3K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
Economics
76%
Up
24%
Down
$78.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 28?
Economics
4%
Up
96%
Down
$75.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?
Economics
10%
Up
90%
Down
$71.8K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 31?
Economics
99%
Up
1%
Down
$66.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
US recession by end of 2026?
Economics
10%
Yes
90%
No
$62.5K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?
Economics
2%
Up
98%
Down
$53.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Economics
1%
Yes
99%
No
$53.2K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Economics
68%
Yes
32%
No
$51.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Economics
24%
Yes
76%
No
$51.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
Economics
1%
Up
99%
Down
$50.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Economics
95%
Yes
5%
No
$49.0K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 7?
Economics
2%
Yes
98%
No
$44.8K
Polymarket Kalshi
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
Economics
3%
Yes
97%
No
$43.0K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of May 4 2026?
Economics
2%
Yes
98%
No
$40.5K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Economics
86%
Yes
14%
No
$39.7K
Polymarket Kalshi
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
Economics
99%
Yes
1%
No
$38.0K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?
Economics
70%
Up
30%
Down
$32.1K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13?
Economics
94%
Yes
6%
No
$31.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8?
Economics
84%
Yes
16%
No
$29.0K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 1?
Economics
97%
Yes
3%
No
$23.8K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4?
Economics
2%
Yes
98%
No
$23.2K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?
Economics
1%
Yes
99%
No
$22.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14?
Economics
79%
Up
21%
Down
$18.8K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 6?
Economics
98%
Yes
2%
No
$18.1K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?
Economics
5%
Yes
95%
No
$16.7K
Polymarket Kalshi
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Economics
42%
Yes
57%
No
$15.2K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 6?
Economics
94%
Yes
6%
No
$15.0K
Polymarket Kalshi
Brex IPO before 2027?
Economics
3%
Yes
97%
No
$13.8K
Polymarket Kalshi
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Economics
57%
Yes
42%
No
$13.2K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 8?
Economics
98%
Yes
2%
No
$13.0K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?
Economics
92%
Yes
8%
No
$12.6K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on April 30?
Economics
99%
Yes
1%
No
$12.5K
Polymarket Kalshi
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 6?
Economics
5%
Yes
95%
No
$12.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?
Economics
35%
Yes
65%
No
$12.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?
Economics
94%
Yes
6%
No
$12.4K
Polymarket Kalshi
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