World Cup 2026 Odds — Live Prediction Market Prices

Who wins the World Cup? What real money says — not what a bookmaker quotes. Live prices on the winner, all 12 groups, knockout props and every match, June 11 – July 19.

$$1910.9M traded on World Cup markets • Updated every 10 minutes from Polymarket

⚽ Get the odds shift after every matchday

Which favorites are fading, which longshots the smart money is buying, and where markets disagree with sportsbooks. Free during the tournament.

🏆 Tournament Winner

Trade on Polymarket
Spain
16.4%
France
16.1%
Portugal
10.9%
England
10.8%
Argentina
8.6%
Brazil
8.5%
Germany
5.2%
Netherlands
4.0%
Norway
2.5%
Belgium
2.1%
Colombia
1.9%
Japan
1.8%
Morocco
1.8%
Mexico
1.4%

Implied probability from live contract prices. No bookmaker margin — what traders actually pay.

📅 Next Matches — 1 / X / 2

2026-06-11
Korea Republic vs. Czechia
36.5%
Korea Republic
31.5%
Draw
32.5%
Czechia
2026-06-11
Mexico vs. South Africa
69.5%
Mexico
20.5%
Draw
10.5%
South Africa
2026-06-12
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina
53.5%
Canada
26.5%
Draw
20.5%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
2026-06-12
United States vs. Paraguay
49.5%
United States
28.5%
Draw
22.5%
Paraguay
2026-06-13
Brazil vs. Morocco
58.5%
Brazil
24.5%
Draw
17.5%
Morocco
2026-06-13
Haiti vs. Scotland
15.5%
Haiti
22.5%
Draw
62.5%
Scotland
2026-06-13
Qatar vs. Switzerland
6.3%
Qatar
13.5%
Draw
80.5%
Switzerland
2026-06-14
Australia vs. Türkiye
17.5%
Australia
25.5%
Draw
56.5%
Türkiye
2026-06-14
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador
26.5%
Côte d'Ivoire
33.5%
Draw
39.5%
Ecuador
2026-06-14
Germany vs. Curaçao
93.8%
Germany
4.3%
Draw
2.1%
Curaçao
2026-06-14
Netherlands vs. Japan
46.5%
Netherlands
26.5%
Draw
26.5%
Japan
2026-06-14
Sweden vs. Tunisia
50.5%
Sweden
28.5%
Draw
21.5%
Tunisia

📊 World Cup Research Theses

Where our research desk thinks the market is mispriced — with entry logic, invalidation, and live tracking.

Research watch
Argentina to Repeat as World Cup Champion — The Defending-Champion Discount
Research watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
Research YES • YES 8.6% / NO 91.5%
Research watch
Mexico to Win Group A — Host Advantage the Market May Still Underprice
Research watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
Research YES • YES 56.5% / NO 43.5%
Research watch
Spain to Win the 2026 World Cup — A Favorite at a Historic Discount
Research watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.
Research YES • YES 16.2% / NO 83.8%

Group Winners — All 12 Groups

Group A
Mexico 57.5%
South Korea 21.0%
Czechia 17.5%
South Africa 6.3%
Group B
Switzerland 56.5%
Canada 30.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 12.5%
Qatar 2.5%
Group C
Brazil 71.5%
Morocco 20.5%
Scotland 8.0%
Haiti 0.7%
Group D
USA 38.5%
Türkiye 35.5%
Paraguay 17.5%
Australia 9.4%
Group E
Germany 67.5%
Ecuador 21.5%
Ivory Coast 12.6%
Curaçao 0.5%
Group F
Netherlands 53.5%
Japan 27.5%
Sweden 15.5%
Tunisia 6.0%
Group G
Belgium 69.5%
Egypt 16.5%
Iran 12.3%
New Zealand 3.5%
Group H
Spain 79.0%
Uruguay 19.5%
Saudi Arabia 2.0%
Cape Verde 0.9%
Group I
France 65.5%
Norway 23.5%
Senegal 11.5%
Iraq 0.7%
Group J
Argentina 71.5%
Austria 18.5%
Algeria 9.7%
Jordan 1.7%
Group K
Portugal 62.5%
Colombia 32.5%
Congo DR 4.2%
Uzbekistan 2.4%
Group L
England 68.5%
Croatia 22.5%
Ghana 5.8%
Panama 2.9%
Nation to reach the Round of 16
France 78.5% Spain 78.0% England 72.5% Portugal 70.5% Brazil 69.5% Argentina 69.5%
Nation to reach the Quarterfinals
Spain 60.5% France 57.5% England 54.5% Argentina 51.5% Portugal 51.5% Brazil 47.5%
Nation to reach the Semifinals
Spain 43.5% France 42.0% England 34.0% Brazil 31.5% Argentina 31.0% Portugal 30.5%
Nation to reach the Final
France 28.5% Spain 28.0% England 22.5% Brazil 19.0% Argentina 18.5% Portugal 18.5%
Which continent wins?
Europe 71.5% South America 21.5% Africa 3.1% Asia 2.8% North America 2.5%
Golden Boot — top scorer
Kylian Mbappe 14.5% Harry Kane 12.5% Mikel Oyarzabal 7.5% Erling Haaland 6.5% Michael Olise 4.8% Cristiano Ronaldo 4.4%

Why prediction market odds beat your sportsbook

A sportsbook line includes the bookmaker's margin — typically 5-10% baked against you. Prediction market prices are set by traders on both sides of every contract, so the price is the market's true probability estimate. When a sportsbook quotes a team at +500 (16.7%) and the prediction market trades the same team at 12%, that gap is information.

During the tournament we track those gaps daily across the winner market, groups, and knockout props.

Compare Odds How It Works 🔗 Embed These Odds

World Cup 2026 Odds — FAQ

Who is favored to win the 2026 World Cup?

Markets currently price Spain as the favorite at 16.4%, ahead of France (16.1%) and Portugal (10.9%). With no team above 17%, this is one of the most open World Cups markets have ever priced.

What do these percentages mean?

Each percentage is the live price of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. Spain at 16.4% means traders pay $0.16 per contract — the market's real-money estimate of the probability.

How often do these odds update?

This page refreshes from Polymarket every 10 minutes. The underlying markets trade 24/7 and react to lineups, injuries, and results within seconds — usually faster than sportsbooks move their lines.

Sports Markets Research Theses Paper Trading Compare Odds

Get the edge — weekly

Top divergences, biggest movers, and survey insights. No spam.