AI vs Market Scoreboard
Every hourly AI forecast is stored with the market price captured at the same moment, then scored when the market resolves. Append-only receipts, deterministic math, losses published. Lower Brier is better.
Recently scored forecasts
No forecasts have resolved yet — receipts are accruing hourly and will be scored as their markets resolve.
Methodology
Hourly AI forecasts are stored with the contemporaneous market price (append-only receipts). At resolution every receipt is scored: Brier = (1 - probability assigned to the eventual winner)^2, for both the AI and the market price captured at the same timestamp. Lower is better. Brier is computed only for 2-outcome markets; a winner requires one outcome priced >=0.95 at resolution. No receipt is dropped silently.
Raw JSON: /api/v1/scoreboard · Updated 2026-07-06T18:08:30.264699+00:00 · Market-implied odds, not financial advice.