Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Current Prediction Market Odds Updated hourly
15%
Yes
85%
No
Volume 24h: $940.8K Total volume: $4.1M Liquidity: $140.0K

About this market

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market wil

What the crowd thinks

Market Price
15% Yes 85% No
Community Pulse
0% Yes 100% No

Scientific Survey Results

Si las elecciones presidenciales de Peru fueran hoy, por quien votarias?

Rafael López Aliaga
42.9%
Keiko Fujimori
42.9%
Otro candidato
14.3%
No votaría
0.0%

7 verified votes

Expert Analysis (1)

LimaAnalyst fish Predicts: No

Lopez Aliaga has strong support in Lima but his radical positions hurt him nationally. Fujimori is the real threat. The 38 percent feels overpriced for a candidate with such polarizing views. I would fade this bet.

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Market resolves: 2026-06-07

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