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Economics Prediction Markets
Prediction market prices on Fed decisions, inflation, GDP, and recession risk. Better than surveys — backed by real money.
50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
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$4.5M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
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$4.2M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
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$3.9M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
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$3.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
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$1.9M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
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$1.8M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
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$1.7M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
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$1.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
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$970.2K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
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$962.4K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
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$878.5K vol 24h
99%
Yes
1%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
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$878.0K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
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$674.2K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
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$532.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
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$482.4K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?
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$467.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?
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$463.6K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
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$424.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
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$343.8K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?
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$321.4K vol 24h
99%
Up
1%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21?
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$310.0K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?
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$288.9K vol 24h
2%
Up
98%
Down
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
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$254.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?
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$252.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?
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$245.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
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$241.5K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17?
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$223.1K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?
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$215.0K vol 24h
7%
Up
93%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24?
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$214.4K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22?
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$213.4K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?
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$208.2K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?
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$200.0K vol 24h
7%
Up
93%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21?
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$199.2K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?
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$197.8K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?
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$187.4K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?
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$187.0K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
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$186.6K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23?
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$185.9K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23?
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$181.9K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?
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$176.6K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?
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$176.4K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?
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$171.4K vol 24h
94%
Up
6%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?
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$171.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
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$169.0K vol 24h
92%
Yes
8%
No
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
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$166.3K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?
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$160.4K vol 24h
28%
Up
72%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22?
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$158.6K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
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