Tracked watchlist
Economics Prediction Markets
Prediction market prices on Fed decisions, inflation, GDP, and recession risk. Better than surveys — backed by real money.
50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Trade
$3.3M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Trade
$2.4M vol 24h
Needs confirmation
25%
Yes
75%
No
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Trade
$2.4M vol 24h
Needs confirmation
75%
Yes
25%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Trade
$2.1M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Trade
$1.6M vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27?
Trade
$329.1K vol 24h
60%
Up
40%
Down
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Trade
$254.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?
Trade
$252.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?
Trade
$245.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22?
Trade
$245.3K vol 24h
12%
Up
88%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?
Trade
$244.7K vol 24h
2%
Up
98%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 20?
Trade
$230.5K vol 24h
40%
Up
60%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17?
Trade
$223.1K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Trade
$222.5K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 2?
Trade
$218.8K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Trade
$216.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 24?
Trade
$215.9K vol 24h
36%
Up
64%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?
Trade
$215.0K vol 24h
7%
Up
93%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24?
Trade
$214.4K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22?
Trade
$213.4K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26?
Trade
$211.3K vol 24h
30%
Up
70%
Down
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Trade
$211.2K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?
Trade
$208.2K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?
Trade
$200.0K vol 24h
7%
Up
93%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21?
Trade
$199.2K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?
Trade
$197.8K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24?
Trade
$195.0K vol 24h
5%
Up
95%
Down
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Trade
$189.4K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?
Trade
$187.4K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15?
Trade
$187.0K vol 24h
97%
Up
3%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?
Trade
$187.0K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Trade
$186.6K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23?
Trade
$185.9K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 29?
Trade
$184.3K vol 24h
99%
Up
1%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23?
Trade
$181.9K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 16?
Trade
$181.2K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 13?
Trade
$179.2K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16?
Trade
$179.1K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?
Trade
$176.6K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?
Trade
$176.4K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2?
Trade
$171.4K vol 24h
94%
Up
6%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?
Trade
$171.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Trade
$166.3K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Trade
$161.3K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?
Trade
$160.4K vol 24h
28%
Up
72%
Down
Get the edge on economics markets
Compare odds, see crowd sentiment, and find mispriced contracts.