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Economics Prediction Markets
Prediction market prices on Fed decisions, inflation, GDP, and recession risk. Better than surveys — backed by real money.
50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
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$3.5M vol 24h
94%
Yes
6%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
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$1.4M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
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$1.2M vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
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$741.2K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
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$273.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
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$141.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
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$121.2K vol 24h
60%
Yes
40%
No
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
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$116.6K vol 24h
92%
Yes
8%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?
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$113.7K vol 24h
4%
Up
96%
Down
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
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$107.7K vol 24h
78%
Yes
22%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 26?
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$101.5K vol 24h
90%
Up
10%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 19?
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$95.1K vol 24h
97%
Up
3%
Down
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
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$87.8K vol 24h
66%
Yes
34%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18?
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$87.0K vol 24h
80%
Up
20%
Down
US recession by end of 2026?
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$84.6K vol 24h
10%
Yes
90%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?
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$84.4K vol 24h
99%
Up
1%
Down
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
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$81.9K vol 24h
76%
Yes
24%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 21?
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$79.3K vol 24h
92%
Up
8%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
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$78.4K vol 24h
76%
Up
24%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 28?
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$75.4K vol 24h
4%
Up
96%
Down
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
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$73.5K vol 24h
20%
Yes
80%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?
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$71.8K vol 24h
10%
Up
90%
Down
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
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$70.0K vol 24h
97%
Yes
3%
No
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
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$67.4K vol 24h
64%
Yes
36%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 31?
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$66.6K vol 24h
99%
Up
1%
Down
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
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$64.6K vol 24h
8%
Yes
92%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 29?
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$59.9K vol 24h
5%
Up
95%
Down
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
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$59.8K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 13?
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$59.3K vol 24h
49%
Up
51%
Down
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
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$56.9K vol 24h
94%
Yes
6%
No
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?
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$55.4K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?
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$53.6K vol 24h
2%
Up
98%
Down
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
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$51.9K vol 24h
18%
Yes
82%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
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$50.6K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
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$50.4K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 12?
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$44.4K vol 24h
3%
Up
97%
Down
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?
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$43.0K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14?
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$32.1K vol 24h
70%
Up
30%
Down
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 8?
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$29.0K vol 24h
84%
Yes
16%
No
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