Tracked watchlist
Economics Prediction Markets
Prediction market prices on Fed decisions, inflation, GDP, and recession risk. Better than surveys — backed by real money.
50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Trade
$4.5M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Trade
$4.2M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Trade
$3.9M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Trade
$3.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Trade
$1.8M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30?
Trade
$467.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Trade
$350.1K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Trade
$329.1K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?
Trade
$321.4K vol 24h
99%
Up
1%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21?
Trade
$310.0K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?
Trade
$288.9K vol 24h
2%
Up
98%
Down
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Trade
$264.9K vol 24h
98%
Yes
2%
No
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Trade
$254.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6?
Trade
$252.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Trade
$234.0K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Trade
$223.5K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17?
Trade
$223.1K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Trade
$220.5K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?
Trade
$215.0K vol 24h
7%
Up
93%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24?
Trade
$214.4K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22?
Trade
$213.4K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?
Trade
$208.2K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?
Trade
$200.0K vol 24h
7%
Up
93%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21?
Trade
$199.2K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Trade
$196.9K vol 24h
24%
Yes
76%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?
Trade
$187.4K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?
Trade
$187.0K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Trade
$186.6K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23?
Trade
$185.9K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23?
Trade
$181.9K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?
Trade
$176.6K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?
Trade
$176.4K vol 24h
1%
Up
99%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?
Trade
$171.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?
Trade
$160.4K vol 24h
28%
Up
72%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22?
Trade
$158.6K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?
Trade
$149.8K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20?
Trade
$142.7K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Trade
$138.5K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12?
Trade
$136.7K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27?
Trade
$134.6K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?
Trade
$132.3K vol 24h
0%
Up
100%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13?
Trade
$129.1K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Trade
$126.6K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 1?
Trade
$126.5K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?
Trade
$124.2K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13?
Trade
$122.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?
Trade
$109.3K vol 24h
100%
Up
0%
Down
Get the edge on economics markets
Compare odds, see crowd sentiment, and find mispriced contracts.