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Politics Prediction Markets
Track election odds in real-time. See who the prediction markets think will win — from US elections to global politics.
50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Same contract, two prices. Here is the cheaper one, fees included.
We compare what a $100 order actually buys on each venue, for contracts with equivalent resolution rules.
J.D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Marco Rubio
Jon Ossoff
2028 Democratic nomination
2028 Republican nomination
Outcome router
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Live $100 comparison
Unfilled quote · payout only if this side settles at $1
Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
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$828.3K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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$330.5K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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$301.2K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
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$276.9K vol 24h
90%
Yes
10%
No
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
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$227.1K vol 24h
10%
Yes
90%
No
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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$215.8K vol 24h
16%
Yes
84%
No
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
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$192.1K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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$190.5K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
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$165.8K vol 24h
64%
Yes
36%
No
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
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$163.1K vol 24h
97%
Yes
3%
No
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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$151.5K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
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$141.3K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?
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$128.3K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
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$123.3K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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$110.4K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
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$103.1K vol 24h
84%
Yes
16%
No
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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$102.8K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
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$101.4K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trump out as President before 2027?
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$94.1K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
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$94.0K vol 24h
59%
Yes
41%
No
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
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$86.9K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
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$85.8K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?
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$85.7K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
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$85.0K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
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$84.5K vol 24h
48%
Yes
52%
No
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
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$81.5K vol 24h
10%
Yes
90%
No
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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$81.5K vol 24h
7%
Yes
93%
No
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
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$80.4K vol 24h
42%
Yes
58%
No
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?
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$80.3K vol 24h
61%
Yes
39%
No
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?
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$76.0K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
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