Geopolitics Prediction Markets

The market's view on global conflicts, diplomacy, and regime stability. Updated hourly from Polymarket and Kalshi.

50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$70.2M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
$16.8M vol 24h
82%
Yes
18%
No
Trade
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
$16.1M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
$14.0M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$11.7M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?
$8.1M vol 24h
52%
Yes
48%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
$6.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
$5.3M vol 24h
10%
Yes
90%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
$4.9M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
$4.8M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
$4.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
$3.9M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
$3.8M vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
$3.8M vol 24h
14%
Yes
86%
No
Trade
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
$3.5M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
$3.3M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
$3.2M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
$3.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
$2.6M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
$2.5M vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$2.5M vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
$2.1M vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
$2.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$1.8M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
$1.8M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
$1.7M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
$1.6M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.6M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
$1.5M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
$1.4M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?
$1.4M vol 24h
10%
Yes
90%
No
Trade
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?
$1.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
$1.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$1.1M vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
$1.1M vol 24h
94%
Yes
6%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
$1.1M vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
$1.1M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
$1.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
$975.7K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?
$958.2K vol 24h
28%
Yes
72%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
$954.6K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?
$951.2K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
$920.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
$906.3K vol 24h
42%
Yes
58%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
$845.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
$832.6K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?
$831.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
$828.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?
$715.0K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
$708.5K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade

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