Geopolitics Prediction Markets

The market's view on global conflicts, diplomacy, and regime stability. Updated hourly from Polymarket and Kalshi.

50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$70.2M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
$16.1M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
$14.0M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$11.7M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
$6.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$5.6M vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
$5.3M vol 24h
10%
Yes
90%
No
Trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
$4.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
$3.9M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
$3.8M vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
$3.8M vol 24h
14%
Yes
86%
No
Trade
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
$2.6M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
$2.5M vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
$2.1M vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
$2.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
$1.6M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
$1.6M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
$1.4M vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
$1.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$1.1M vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
$1.0M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
$954.6K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?
$951.2K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
$920.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?
$845.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
$828.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?
$704.1K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
$647.1K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?
$642.5K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$634.3K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?
$608.4K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
$603.9K vol 24h
12%
Yes
88%
No
Trade
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?
$590.9K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
$585.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
$584.4K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
$577.9K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?
$540.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
$529.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
$492.1K vol 24h
8%
Yes
92%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
$425.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
$418.8K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will Corey Seager win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?
$396.0K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
$390.9K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?
$379.3K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?
$370.6K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
$345.4K vol 24h
95%
Yes
5%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
$327.7K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
$320.9K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
$318.5K vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
$299.1K vol 24h
28%
Yes
72%
No
Trade

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