Geopolitics Prediction Markets

The market's view on global conflicts, diplomacy, and regime stability. Updated hourly from Polymarket and Kalshi.

50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
$1.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$1.1M vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
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Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
$529.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
$451.9K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
$449.9K vol 24h
62%
Yes
38%
No
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Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?
$248.0K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$232.9K vol 24h
16%
Yes
84%
No
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US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
$205.2K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
$199.4K vol 24h
96%
Yes
4%
No
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?
$182.5K vol 24h
93%
Yes
7%
No
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Cuban regime falls in 2026?
$160.3K vol 24h
20%
Yes
80%
No
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US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
$155.0K vol 24h
7%
Yes
93%
No
Trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?
$154.7K vol 24h
98%
Yes
2%
No
Trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$144.8K vol 24h
78%
Yes
22%
No
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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
$125.4K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?
$121.3K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 16?
$119.8K vol 24h
99%
Yes
1%
No
Trade
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
$119.5K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
$105.6K vol 24h
40%
Yes
60%
No
Trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
$98.9K vol 24h
35%
Yes
65%
No
Trade
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
$98.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?
$97.1K vol 24h
5%
Yes
95%
No
Trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$97.0K vol 24h
10%
Yes
90%
No
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Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
$88.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?
$83.4K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
$83.2K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$82.3K vol 24h
20%
Yes
80%
No
Trade
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
$80.5K vol 24h
32%
Yes
68%
No
Trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
$80.0K vol 24h
8%
Yes
92%
No
Trade
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$79.5K vol 24h
7%
Yes
93%
No
Trade
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
$78.6K vol 24h
14%
Yes
86%
No
Trade
Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?
$78.4K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$78.0K vol 24h
28%
Yes
72%
No
Trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
$77.1K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
$72.5K vol 24h
12%
Yes
88%
No
Trade
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
$72.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?
$71.3K vol 24h
81%
Yes
19%
No
Trade
Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?
$71.1K vol 24h
17%
Yes
83%
No
Trade
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
$71.0K vol 24h
23%
Yes
77%
No
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Iran Nuke before 2027?
$70.2K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$69.3K vol 24h
81%
Yes
19%
No
Trade
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
$68.9K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
$68.7K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
$67.9K vol 24h
20%
Yes
80%
No
Trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?
$67.2K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
$66.9K vol 24h
32%
Yes
68%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
$64.9K vol 24h
28%
Yes
72%
No
Trade
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$64.8K vol 24h
38%
Yes
62%
No
Trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
$64.2K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?
$63.8K vol 24h
80%
Yes
20%
No
Trade

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