Geopolitics Prediction Markets

The market's view on global conflicts, diplomacy, and regime stability. Updated hourly from Polymarket and Kalshi.

50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
$1.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Trade
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
$1.1M vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
$529.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Trade
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
$451.9K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
$449.9K vol 24h
62%
Yes
38%
No
Trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$301.1K vol 24h
18%
Yes
82%
No
Trade
Will Cole Young win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?
$248.0K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
$217.1K vol 24h
8%
Yes
92%
No
Trade
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
$204.2K vol 24h
26%
Yes
74%
No
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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
$201.5K vol 24h
7%
Yes
93%
No
Trade
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)
$200.4K vol 24h
26%
IR Ir
74%
New Z
Trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
$197.1K vol 24h
13%
Yes
87%
No
Trade
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?
$186.1K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
$181.2K vol 24h
28%
Yes
72%
No
Trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
$180.3K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Trade
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
$174.4K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
$174.1K vol 24h
28%
Yes
72%
No
Trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
$171.9K vol 24h
98%
Yes
2%
No
Trade
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)
$169.5K vol 24h
2%
IR Ir
98%
Egypt
Trade
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
$167.6K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
$167.5K vol 24h
14%
Yes
86%
No
Trade
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
$166.9K vol 24h
55%
Yes
45%
No
Trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
$161.3K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
$160.3K vol 24h
20%
Yes
80%
No
Trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
$155.0K vol 24h
7%
Yes
93%
No
Trade
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
$148.2K vol 24h
96%
Yes
4%
No
Trade
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
$144.3K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
$143.4K vol 24h
99%
Yes
1%
No
Trade
Iran leadership change by May 31?
$141.7K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
$136.2K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
$125.4K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
$119.5K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
$116.4K vol 24h
46%
Yes
55%
No
Trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
$104.3K vol 24h
34%
Yes
66%
No
Trade
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
$98.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?
$97.1K vol 24h
5%
Yes
95%
No
Trade
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
$93.5K vol 24h
24%
Yes
76%
No
Trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
$89.2K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
$88.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
$86.8K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?
$83.4K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Trade
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
$79.5K vol 24h
7%
Yes
93%
No
Trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
$72.5K vol 24h
12%
Yes
88%
No
Trade
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
$72.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Trade
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?
$71.3K vol 24h
81%
Yes
19%
No
Trade
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
$71.1K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
Iran Nuke before 2027?
$70.2K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
$69.7K vol 24h
92%
Yes
8%
No
Trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?
$67.2K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
$66.6K vol 24h
9%
Yes
91%
No
Trade

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