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Geopolitics Prediction Markets
The market's view on global conflicts, diplomacy, and regime stability. Updated hourly from Polymarket and Kalshi.
50 live markets • Updated hourly from Polymarket & Kalshi
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
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$1.2M vol 24h
0%
Yes
100%
No
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
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$1.1M vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
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$529.5K vol 24h
100%
Yes
0%
No
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
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$451.9K vol 24h
1%
Yes
99%
No
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
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$174.4K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)
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$169.5K vol 24h
2%
IR Ir
98%
Egypt
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
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$166.9K vol 24h
55%
Yes
45%
No
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
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$163.5K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
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$160.3K vol 24h
20%
Yes
80%
No
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?
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$148.2K vol 24h
96%
Yes
4%
No
Iran leadership change by May 31?
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$141.7K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
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$136.2K vol 24h
4%
Yes
96%
No
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
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$98.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
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$93.5K vol 24h
24%
Yes
76%
No
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
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$88.1K vol 24h
2%
Yes
98%
No
Iran full airspace closure by July 21?
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$83.4K vol 24h
3%
Yes
97%
No
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
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$78.6K vol 24h
14%
Yes
86%
No
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?
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$71.3K vol 24h
81%
Yes
19%
No
Iran Nuke before 2027?
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$70.2K vol 24h
6%
Yes
94%
No
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
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$61.9K vol 24h
35%
Yes
65%
No
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