Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy.
YES has convex upside only if traffic normalizes fast enough for IMF PortWatch to print a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before May 15, 2026.
YES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
24h vol
$863929
Days
12
Base case
The public evidence still supports NO as the base case: current reported traffic is far below the resolution threshold, and safety/insurance confidence has not normalized.
Entry discipline
Do not chase after a headline spike without PortWatch/AIS confirmation.
Research-size only; cap any single public insight at 0.25%-0.50% of bankroll.
Only consider YES if your independent probability is materially above the live price after fees/slippage.
Confirm before sizing
IMF PortWatch 7-day average starts rising toward 60, not just one isolated ship movement.
Daily transit calls include broad commercial traffic, not only Iran-linked or specially cleared vessels.
Shipping, insurer, and official statements converge on safe passage rather than temporary corridors.
Blockers
Reuters reported only seven ships crossed in the prior 24 hours on April 27, versus roughly 140 daily passages before February 28.
AP reported ongoing mine-clearing and confidence issues that can keep commercial operators and insurers sidelined.
The market resolves on IMF PortWatch data only; ships not reported there do not count.
Invalidation
If PortWatch remains below roughly 20-30 daily calls into early May, or if new attacks/mining/insurance warnings persist, the YES thesis needs to be downgraded.
Watch items
IMF PortWatch downloadable transit-call data for Strait of Hormuz.
Kpler, SynMax, MarineTraffic, Lloyd's List, and tanker-insurer updates.
US-Iran ceasefire/safe-passage statements and evidence that commercial carriers resume normal routing.