Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy.

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YES has convex upside only if traffic normalizes fast enough for IMF PortWatch to print a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before May 15, 2026.

Embed Research desk

YES

6.5%

93.5%

24h vol

$271684

Days

Reference

YES 14.5%

Now

YES 6.5%

Move

-8.0 pp

Research tracker

Cheap, still unconfirmed

Thesis score

35/100

Low until PortWatch improves

Next action

Only research-size entries make sense unless the transit data starts turning.

pending

Resolution-source traffic recovery

IMF PortWatch 7-day average needs to move toward 60 transit calls.

pending

Broad commercial traffic

Need evidence beyond isolated or specially cleared ship movements.

blocked

Safety and insurance normalization

Public reporting still points to mine-clearing and operator confidence issues.

Base case

The public evidence still supports NO as the base case: current reported traffic is far below the resolution threshold, and safety/insurance confidence has not normalized.

Entry discipline

Do not chase after a headline spike without PortWatch/AIS confirmation.

Research-size only; cap any single public insight at 0.25%-0.50% of bankroll.

Only consider YES if your independent probability is materially above the live price after fees/slippage.

Confirm before sizing

IMF PortWatch 7-day average starts rising toward 60, not just one isolated ship movement.

Daily transit calls include broad commercial traffic, not only Iran-linked or specially cleared vessels.

Shipping, insurer, and official statements converge on safe passage rather than temporary corridors.

Blockers

Reuters reported only seven ships crossed in the prior 24 hours on April 27, versus roughly 140 daily passages before February 28.

AP reported ongoing mine-clearing and confidence issues that can keep commercial operators and insurers sidelined.

The market resolves on IMF PortWatch data only; ships not reported there do not count.

Invalidation

If PortWatch remains below roughly 20-30 daily calls into early May, or if new attacks/mining/insurance warnings persist, the YES thesis needs to be downgraded.