Investment Insights

Public research notes for liquid prediction-market setups with explicit rules, evidence, triggers, and invalidation.

JSON Research desk Edge Paper tracker Strategies
Tracked
6
Active
6
Watch
6
Tradable
0
Watchers
3

Research queue

Markets getting clicks, follows, or email requests. This queue helps decide which setups get deeper VoxOdds research next.

Open watchlist
Demand 8 · covered
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1.4%
YES
8 clicks 0 browser 0 email
Demand 7 · covered
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
12.6%
YES
7 clicks 0 browser 0 email

Localized research hubs

Long-tail Polymarket research pages in niche languages. New active insights are added to these hubs and sitemap automatically.

English Català Euskera 粵語 Polski Galego Cymraeg Gaeilge

Most watched research

Tracker activity from browser follows and email alert follows. Use it as a demand signal, not a trade signal.

Open watchlist
Research watch
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
3
watching
1 browser 2 email YES 12.5%
Research watch Geopolitics YES watch

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy.

Reference
YES 14.5%
Now
YES 12.5%
Move
-2.0 pp
Tracker
Watch, no default buy
YES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
24h vol
$279406
Days
33

Thesis

YES has convex upside only if traffic normalizes fast enough for IMF PortWatch to print a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before May 15, 2026.

Base case

The public evidence still supports NO as the base case: current reported traffic is far below the resolution threshold, and safety/insurance confidence has not normalized.

Entry discipline

Do not chase after a headline spike without PortWatch/AIS confirmation.
Research-size only; cap any single public insight at 0.25%-0.50% of bankroll.
Only consider YES if your independent probability is materially above the live price after fees/slippage.

Confirm

IMF PortWatch 7-day average starts rising toward 60, not just one isolated ship movement.
Daily transit calls include broad commercial traffic, not only Iran-linked or specially cleared vessels.
Shipping, insurer, and official statements converge on safe passage rather than temporary corridors.

Blockers

Reuters reported only seven ships crossed in the prior 24 hours on April 27, versus roughly 140 daily passages before February 28.
AP reported ongoing mine-clearing and confidence issues that can keep commercial operators and insurers sidelined.
The market resolves on IMF PortWatch data only; ships not reported there do not count.
Invalidation

If PortWatch remains below roughly 20-30 daily calls into early May, or if new attacks/mining/insurance warnings persist, the YES thesis needs to be downgraded.

Research watch Geopolitics YES watch

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 62.0%
Now
YES 62.0%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
62.0%
NO
38.0%
24h vol
$449945
Days
156

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 62.0% / NO 38.0% with a setup score of 85/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Politics YES watch

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 20.5%
Now
YES 20.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
YES
20.5%
NO
79.5%
24h vol
$62015
Days
221

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Kalshi. Current market pricing is roughly YES 20.5% / NO 79.5% with a setup score of 99/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 6.2pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES is cheaper on Kalshi
Estimated net edge remains +6.2pp after friction.
Gross spread is 11.1pp.
Strong title match (1.00).

Blockers

Limited side volume: $1,074.
Expiry mismatch: 1098 days.
Integrity flags: limited side volume, fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Invalidation

Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.

Research watch Politics YES watch

Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 1.1%
Now
YES 1.1%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
YES
1.1%
NO
99.0%
24h vol
$55095
Days
913

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 86.2pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES is cheaper on Polymarket
Estimated net edge remains +86.2pp after friction.
Gross spread is 91.4pp.
Low integrity-risk score.

Blockers

Limited side volume: $2,411.
Expiry mismatch: 25 days.
Integrity flags: limited side volume, fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Invalidation

Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.

Research watch Politics YES watch

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 14.8%
Now
YES 14.8%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
YES
14.8%
NO
85.2%
24h vol
$59008
Days
913

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 14.8% / NO 85.2% with a setup score of 82/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 3.5pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES is cheaper on Polymarket
Estimated net edge remains +3.5pp after friction.
Gross spread is 6.8pp.
Both sides show usable volume: $56,562+.

Blockers

Expiry mismatch: 366 days.
Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Invalidation

Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.

Research watch Politics YES watch

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Cross-platform arb watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 1.1%
Now
YES 1.1%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Interesting spread, but confirm blockers before sizing.
YES
1.1%
NO
99.0%
24h vol
$56128
Days
915

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES is cheaper on Polymarket. Current market pricing is roughly YES 1.1% / NO 99.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a cross-platform arb watch, not a blind buy signal.
Estimated net edge is 87.2pp before personal execution costs.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES is cheaper on Polymarket
Estimated net edge remains +87.2pp after friction.
Gross spread is 91.5pp.
Minimum side volume is $5,048.

Blockers

Expiry mismatch: 25 days.
Integrity flags: fill and settlement sensitive.
Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.
Invalidation

Invalid if rules, settlement source, expiry, or tradable depth are not actually equivalent.

These are research notes, not individualized financial advice.
Any market can resolve to zero; size positions so a total loss is acceptable.
Rules beat headlines. Always check resolution criteria before sizing.
Updated 2026-07-28T01:42:43.556736+00:00. Public market research only. Not financial advice.

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