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Public research notes for liquid prediction-market setups with explicit rules, evidence, triggers, and invalidation.

JSON Research desk Edge Paper tracker Strategies
Tracked
24
Active
24
Watch
24
Tradable
0
Watchers
4

Research queue

Markets getting clicks, follows, or email requests. This queue helps decide which setups get deeper VoxOdds research next.

Open watchlist
Demand 3
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
1.6%
YES
3 clicks 0 browser 0 email
Demand 3
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov
50.5%
YES
3 clicks 0 browser 0 email
Demand 3
Lyon Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tommy Paul
33.5%
YES
3 clicks 0 browser 0 email
Demand 2
Almaty Open: Terence Atmane vs Mattia Bellucci
54.5%
YES
2 clicks 0 browser 0 email
Demand 2
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
95.5%
YES
2 clicks 0 browser 0 email
Demand 2
Lyon Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Luca Van Assche
22.0%
YES
2 clicks 0 browser 0 email

Localized research hubs

Long-tail Polymarket research pages in niche languages. New active insights are added to these hubs and sitemap automatically.

English Català Euskera 粵語 Polski Galego Cymraeg Gaeilge

Most watched research

Tracker activity from browser follows and email alert follows. Use it as a demand signal, not a trade signal.

Open watchlist
Research watch
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
3
watching
0 browser 3 email YES 11.5%
Research watch
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
1
watching
0 browser 1 email YES 63.5%
Research watch Geopolitics YES watch

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Contrarian YES watch, not a default buy.

Reference
YES 14.5%
Now
YES 11.5%
Move
-3.0 pp
Tracker
Watch, no default buy
YES
11.5%
NO
88.5%
24h vol
$125699
Days
65

Thesis

YES has convex upside only if traffic normalizes fast enough for IMF PortWatch to print a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before May 15, 2026.

Base case

The public evidence still supports NO as the base case: current reported traffic is far below the resolution threshold, and safety/insurance confidence has not normalized.

Entry discipline

Do not chase after a headline spike without PortWatch/AIS confirmation.
Research-size only; cap any single public insight at 0.25%-0.50% of bankroll.
Only consider YES if your independent probability is materially above the live price after fees/slippage.

Confirm

IMF PortWatch 7-day average starts rising toward 60, not just one isolated ship movement.
Daily transit calls include broad commercial traffic, not only Iran-linked or specially cleared vessels.
Shipping, insurer, and official statements converge on safe passage rather than temporary corridors.

Blockers

Reuters reported only seven ships crossed in the prior 24 hours on April 27, versus roughly 140 daily passages before February 28.
AP reported ongoing mine-clearing and confidence issues that can keep commercial operators and insurers sidelined.
The market resolves on IMF PortWatch data only; ships not reported there do not count.
Invalidation

If PortWatch remains below roughly 20-30 daily calls into early May, or if new attacks/mining/insurance warnings persist, the YES thesis needs to be downgraded.

Research watch Politics YES watch

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 63.5%
Now
YES 63.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
63.5%
NO
36.5%
24h vol
$221217
Days
26

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 63.5% / NO 36.5% with a setup score of 81/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Geopolitics YES watch

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 62.0%
Now
YES 62.0%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
62.0%
NO
38.0%
24h vol
$449945
Days
81

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 62.0% / NO 38.0% with a setup score of 85/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Prediction markets YES watch

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Catalyst momentum watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 33.5%
Now
YES 33.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
33.5%
NO
66.5%
24h vol
$923703
Days
108

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +17.0pp across 47 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 33.5% / NO 66.5% with a setup score of 97/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES moved +17.0pp across 47 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Economics YES watch

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 54.5%
Now
YES 54.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
54.5%
NO
45.5%
24h vol
$620352
Days
122

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 54.5% / NO 45.5% with a setup score of 94/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Prediction markets YES watch

LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Catalyst momentum watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 95.0%
Now
YES 95.0%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
95.0%
NO
5.0%
24h vol
$235487
Days
112

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +22.3pp across 19 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 95.0% / NO 5.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES moved +22.3pp across 19 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Integrity flags: extreme price.
Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Prediction markets YES watch

LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Catalyst momentum watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 86.9%
Now
YES 86.9%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
86.9%
NO
13.2%
24h vol
$344103
Days
112

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +32.6pp across 36 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 86.9% / NO 13.2% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES moved +32.6pp across 36 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Prediction markets YES watch

LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Catalyst momentum watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 66.5%
Now
YES 66.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
66.5%
NO
33.5%
24h vol
$647006
Days
112

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +40.0pp across 48 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 66.5% / NO 33.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES moved +40.0pp across 48 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Prediction markets NO watch

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Price discovery watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 62.5%
Now
NO 62.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
37.5%
NO
62.5%
24h vol
$336717
Days
126

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 37.5% / NO 62.5% with a setup score of 83/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Economics YES watch

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 56.4%
Now
YES 56.4%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
56.4%
NO
43.6%
24h vol
$172035
Days
86

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 56.4% / NO 43.6% with a setup score of 88/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Crypto NO watch

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?

Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 64.5%
Now
NO 64.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
35.5%
NO
64.5%
24h vol
$226893
Days
15

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -16.0pp across 16 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 35.5% / NO 64.5% with a setup score of 94/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

NO moved -16.0pp across 16 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Prediction markets NO watch

Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?

Price discovery watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 52.5%
Now
NO 52.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
47.5%
NO
52.5%
24h vol
$201063
Days
79

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 47.5% / NO 52.5% with a setup score of 92/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Crypto YES watch

Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 57.0%
Now
YES 57.0%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
57.0%
NO
43.0%
24h vol
$186649
Days
114

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 57.0% / NO 43.0% with a setup score of 87/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Prediction markets NO watch

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 39.5%
Now
NO 39.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
24h vol
$742675
Days
152

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 60.5% / NO 39.5% with a setup score of 88/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

NO moved -14.0pp across 31 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Prediction markets NO watch

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

Catalyst momentum watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 74.5%
Now
NO 74.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
25.5%
NO
74.5%
24h vol
$237785
Days
820

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO moved -12.5pp across 14 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 25.5% / NO 74.5% with a setup score of 83/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

NO moved -12.5pp across 14 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Prediction markets YES watch

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

Overreaction fade watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 15.5%
Now
YES 15.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Compare the move against primary sources before taking the other side
YES
15.5%
NO
84.5%
24h vol
$105627
Days
819

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO repriced -22.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak. Current market pricing is roughly YES 15.5% / NO 84.5% with a setup score of 87/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a overreaction fade watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

NO repriced -22.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak
Fast markets can overreact to headlines before traders read the exact resolution rules.

Blockers

Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.
Invalidation

Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Research watch Prediction markets YES watch

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 53.4%
Now
YES 53.4%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
53.4%
NO
46.6%
24h vol
$213046
Days
90

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 53.4% / NO 46.6% with a setup score of 92/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Politics NO watch

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Price discovery watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 53.8%
Now
NO 53.8%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
46.2%
NO
53.8%
24h vol
$244922
Days
184

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 46.2% / NO 53.8% with a setup score of 92/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Politics YES watch

Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Catalyst momentum watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 96.0%
Now
YES 96.0%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Find the catalyst before chasing; skip if the move is only thin-liquidity drift
YES
96.0%
NO
4.0%
24h vol
$534664
Days
320

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES moved +55.8pp across 11 recent snapshots. Current market pricing is roughly YES 96.0% / NO 4.0% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a catalyst momentum watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES moved +55.8pp across 11 recent snapshots
Prediction markets often lag public catalysts when the source is niche or resolution wording is complex.

Blockers

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.
Invalidation

Invalid if no credible catalyst explains the move or if order-book depth disappears.

Research watch Politics YES watch

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 58.0%
Now
YES 58.0%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
58.0%
NO
42.0%
24h vol
$195042
Days
98

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 58.0% / NO 42.0% with a setup score of 86/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Economics YES watch

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Price discovery watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 53.5%
Now
YES 53.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
53.5%
NO
46.5%
24h vol
$318293
Days
35

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 53.5% / NO 46.5% with a setup score of 93/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Research watch Economics YES watch

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Overreaction fade watch: research YES, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
YES 33.5%
Now
YES 33.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Compare the move against primary sources before taking the other side
YES
33.5%
NO
66.5%
24h vol
$685059
Days
27

Thesis

YES is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: NO repriced -35.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak. Current market pricing is roughly YES 33.5% / NO 66.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a overreaction fade watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

NO repriced -35.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak
Fast markets can overreact to headlines before traders read the exact resolution rules.

Blockers

Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.
Invalidation

Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Research watch Economics NO watch

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Overreaction fade watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 34.5%
Now
NO 34.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Compare the move against primary sources before taking the other side
YES
65.5%
NO
34.5%
24h vol
$550008
Days
27

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: YES repriced +35.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak. Current market pricing is roughly YES 65.5% / NO 34.5% with a setup score of 100/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a overreaction fade watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

YES repriced +35.0pp; watch for snapback if catalyst is weak
Fast markets can overreact to headlines before traders read the exact resolution rules.

Blockers

Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.
Invalidation

Invalid if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Research watch Economics NO watch

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Price discovery watch: research NO, confirm rules and depth before sizing.

Reference
NO 54.5%
Now
NO 54.5%
Move
+0.0 pp
Tracker
Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side
YES
45.5%
NO
54.5%
24h vol
$418419
Days
35

Thesis

NO is the side to research because VoxOdds Edge flags: Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing. Current market pricing is roughly YES 45.5% / NO 54.5% with a setup score of 93/100.

Base case

Base case is wait-for-confirmation: the public price alone is not enough. The setup needs rule clarity, usable depth, and a catalyst that survives primary-source review.

Entry discipline

Treat this as a price discovery watch, not a blind buy signal.
Check live order books, fees, slippage, limits, and settlement wording before sizing.
Cap any public research setup at a small bankroll fraction unless independent evidence supports the price.

Confirm

Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
The market is undecided enough that external research may still move fair value.

Blockers

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Invalidation

Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

These are research notes, not individualized financial advice.
Any market can resolve to zero; size positions so a total loss is acceptable.
Rules beat headlines. Always check resolution criteria before sizing.
Updated 2026-10-28T04:50:15.750391+00:00. Public market research only. Not financial advice.

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