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Backtest Lab
Mark-to-market checks on stored hourly price snapshots. Fees and fills excluded.
Open Strategy PlaybookPoly Rows
5000
Kalshi Rows
5000
Edge Snapshots
5000
Updated
8m ago
Cross-platform spread convergence
Checks whether flagged Polymarket/Kalshi spreads narrowed after the horizon.
0 tested
0 waiting
0 missing
Avg convergence
+0.00pp
Hit rate
0.0%
Median
+0.00pp
Best / Worst
+0.0 / +0.0
Collecting data. This needs enriched edge snapshots plus future Polymarket and Kalshi price snapshots.
Fade fast moves
Bet against a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
+0.81pp
Hit rate
55.6%
Median
+0.90pp
Best / Worst
+44.8 / -30.0
Fade extreme prices
Bet against very high YES or very low YES prices over the horizon.
Avg return
-0.04pp
Hit rate
32.6%
Median
+0.00pp
Best / Worst
+32.9 / -11.8
Momentum follow
Buy the direction of a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
-0.81pp
Hit rate
42.0%
Median
-0.90pp
Best / Worst
+30.0 / -44.8
Fade fast moves sample trades
81 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Fade extreme prices sample trades
770 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Momentum follow sample trades
81 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
This backtest uses hourly snapshots and exits at a later snapshot, not final settlement. Treat it as signal research, not a promise of tradable returns.