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Backtest Lab
Mark-to-market checks on stored hourly price snapshots. Fees and fills excluded.
Open Strategy PlaybookPoly Rows
5000
Edge Snapshots
0
Updated
0m ago
Backtests show Polymarket price history only. Historical Kalshi prices and cross-platform convergence results are unavailable under our Live Data license.
Fade fast moves
Bet against a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
+28.25pp
Hit rate
76.9%
Median
+25.12pp
Best / Worst
+77.0 / -6.5
Fade extreme prices
Bet against very high YES or very low YES prices over the horizon.
Avg return
-0.14pp
Hit rate
20.6%
Median
+0.00pp
Best / Worst
+79.5 / -6.0
Momentum follow
Buy the direction of a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
-28.25pp
Hit rate
11.5%
Median
-25.12pp
Best / Worst
+6.5 / -77.0
Fade fast moves sample trades
26 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 15:01 UTC
YES
22% → 99%
-7.5pp
+76.75pp
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 14:18 UTC
YES
22% → 99%
-7.0pp
+76.55pp
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 13:15 UTC
YES
22% → 99%
-7.0pp
+76.35pp
Fade extreme prices sample trades
873 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 11:17 UTC
YES
8% → 24%
-1.2pp
+15.90pp
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 12:14 UTC
YES
6% → 17%
-2.0pp
+10.30pp
Momentum follow sample trades
26 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 15:01 UTC
NO
22% → 99%
-7.5pp
-76.75pp
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 14:18 UTC
NO
22% → 99%
-7.0pp
-76.55pp
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2026-10-27 13:15 UTC
NO
22% → 99%
-7.0pp
-76.35pp
This backtest uses hourly snapshots and exits at a later snapshot, not final settlement. Treat it as signal research, not a promise of tradable returns.