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Backtest Lab
Mark-to-market checks on stored hourly price snapshots. Fees and fills excluded.
Open Strategy PlaybookPoly Rows
5000
Kalshi Rows
5000
Edge Snapshots
5000
Updated
3m ago
Cross-platform spread convergence
Checks whether flagged Polymarket/Kalshi spreads narrowed after the horizon.
0 tested
0 waiting
0 missing
Avg convergence
+0.00pp
Hit rate
0.0%
Median
+0.00pp
Best / Worst
+0.0 / +0.0
Collecting data. This needs enriched edge snapshots plus future Polymarket and Kalshi price snapshots.
Fade fast moves
Bet against a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
+2.25pp
Hit rate
63.9%
Median
+2.00pp
Best / Worst
+63.4 / -66.0
Fade extreme prices
Bet against very high YES or very low YES prices over the horizon.
Avg return
+0.41pp
Hit rate
26.1%
Median
-0.05pp
Best / Worst
+92.4 / -8.3
Momentum follow
Buy the direction of a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
-2.25pp
Hit rate
36.1%
Median
-2.00pp
Best / Worst
+66.0 / -63.4
Fade fast moves sample trades
108 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Fade extreme prices sample trades
832 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Momentum follow sample trades
108 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
This backtest uses hourly snapshots and exits at a later snapshot, not final settlement. Treat it as signal research, not a promise of tradable returns.