Backtest Lab
Mark-to-market checks on stored hourly price snapshots. Fees and fills excluded.
Poly Rows
5000
Kalshi Rows
400
Edge Snapshots
402
Updated
0m ago
Cross-platform spread convergence
Checks whether flagged Polymarket/Kalshi spreads narrowed after the horizon.
0 tested
0 waiting
0 missing
Avg convergence
+0.00pp
Hit rate
0.0%
Median
+0.00pp
Best / Worst
+0.0 / +0.0
Collecting data. This needs enriched edge snapshots plus future Polymarket and Kalshi price snapshots.
Fade fast moves
Bet against a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
+2.51pp
Hit rate
68.0%
Median
+5.00pp
Best / Worst
+38.0 / -44.9
Fade extreme prices
Bet against very high YES or very low YES prices over the horizon.
Avg return
+0.49pp
Hit rate
24.2%
Median
+0.00pp
Best / Worst
+44.9 / -7.5
Momentum follow
Buy the direction of a move that already exceeded the threshold.
Avg return
-2.51pp
Hit rate
24.0%
Median
-5.00pp
Best / Worst
+44.9 / -38.0
Fade fast moves sample trades
25 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
2026-04-24 01:34 UTC
NO
19% → 63%
+9.7pp
-44.85pp
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
2026-04-23 23:22 UTC
NO
10% → 54%
+6.5pp
-44.25pp
Fade extreme prices sample trades
231 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
2026-04-24 00:26 UTC
YES
11% → 56%
+4.4pp
+44.90pp
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
2026-04-23 23:22 UTC
YES
10% → 54%
+6.5pp
+44.25pp
Momentum follow sample trades
25 totalMarket
Side
Entry → Exit
Prior Move
Return
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
2026-04-24 01:34 UTC
YES
19% → 63%
+9.7pp
+44.85pp
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
2026-04-23 23:22 UTC
YES
10% → 54%
+6.5pp
+44.25pp
This backtest uses hourly snapshots and exits at a later snapshot, not final settlement. Treat it as signal research, not a promise of tradable returns.