Strategy Playbook

Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.

Current read

No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.

Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.

served precomputed precomputed 5m ago
Rows
5000
Markets
367
Signals
50

Momentum follow

Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.

neutral
Avg
+0.55pp
Hit
44.8%
Trades
386

Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.

Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.

Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.

Fade extreme prices

Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.

avoid
Avg
+0.08pp
Hit
15.6%
Trades
2353

Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.

Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.

Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.

Fade fast moves

Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.

avoid
Avg
-0.55pp
Hit
36.5%
Trades
386

Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.

Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.

Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Current setups

Candidates that match the strongest current filters.

Barranquilla: Julieta Pareja vs Lucrezia Stefanini
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 100

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $2.0M · liq $688k
Usable depth: 2007414 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 95.5

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 46% / NO 55% · vol $1.4M · liq $914k
Usable depth: 1358679 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 94.8

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 56% / NO 44% · vol $1.6M · liq $79k
Usable depth: 1621130 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 93.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 55% / NO 46% · vol $814k · liq $847k
Usable depth: 846874 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Patriots vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 93.0

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 48% / NO 52% · vol $380k · liq $1.2M
Usable depth: 1163944 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 92.3

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 57% / NO 42% · vol $2.0M · liq $1.4M
Usable depth: 2030209 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Avoid or wait

Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.

No high-risk avoid candidates in the current Edge sample.

Guardrails

Do not treat a market price as executable fair value without checking depth and spread.
Do not chase a move unless you can name the catalyst and the resolution rule it affects.
Avoid thin, near-resolution, or wording-sensitive markets unless the source-of-truth is clear.
Backtests are mark-to-market snapshots; they exclude fees, fills, taxes, limits, and settlement risk.
Strategy signals are research outputs, not financial advice or trade instructions.

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