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Strategy Playbook

Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.

Current read

No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.

Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.

served precomputed precomputed 51m ago
Rows
5000
Markets
327
Signals
78

Fade fast moves

Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.

avoid
Avg
+1.09pp
Hit
39.6%
Trades
275

Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.

Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.

Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Fade extreme prices

Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.

avoid
Avg
+0.04pp
Hit
15.1%
Trades
2141

Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.

Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.

Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.

Momentum follow

Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.

avoid
Avg
-1.09pp
Hit
40.7%
Trades
275

Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.

Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.

Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.

Current setups

Candidates that match the strongest current filters.

LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 100

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $3.2M · liq $149k
Usable depth: 3248666 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 98.6

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $924k · liq $336k
Usable depth: 923812 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 95.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 48% / NO 52% · vol $1.1M · liq $1.1M
Usable depth: 1128808 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 94.8

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $460k · liq $867k
Usable depth: 866909 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Pistons vs. 76ers
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 94.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 54% / NO 46% · vol $1.2M · liq $1.4M
Usable depth: 1431500 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Spread: Broncos (-4.5)
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 94.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $447k · liq $952k
Usable depth: 952458 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Avoid or wait

Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.

No high-risk avoid candidates in the current Edge sample.

Guardrails

Do not treat a market price as executable fair value without checking depth and spread.
Do not chase a move unless you can name the catalyst and the resolution rule it affects.
Avoid thin, near-resolution, or wording-sensitive markets unless the source-of-truth is clear.
Backtests are mark-to-market snapshots; they exclude fees, fills, taxes, limits, and settlement risk.
Strategy signals are research outputs, not financial advice or trade instructions.

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