Strategy Playbook

Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.

Current read

No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.

Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.

served precomputed precomputed 21m ago
Rows
5000
Markets
366
Signals
42

Momentum follow

Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.

neutral
Avg
+0.24pp
Hit
45.7%
Trades
468

Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.

Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.

Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.

Fade extreme prices

Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.

avoid
Avg
-0.01pp
Hit
13.8%
Trades
2213

Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.

Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.

Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.

Fade fast moves

Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.

avoid
Avg
-0.24pp
Hit
31.0%
Trades
468

Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.

Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.

Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Current setups

Candidates that match the strongest current filters.

National Bank Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 97.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 52% / NO 48% · vol $1.4M · liq $333k
Usable depth: 1363954 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
National Bank Open: Titouan Droguet vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 95.9

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $639k · liq $556k
Usable depth: 639202 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 95.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 48% / NO 52% · vol $771k · liq $236k
Usable depth: 770873 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 95.7

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $406k · liq $175k
Usable depth: 406013 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderi
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 95.0

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 52% / NO 48% · vol $629k · liq $272k
Usable depth: 629380 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 94.6

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $436k · liq $442k
Usable depth: 442007 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Avoid or wait

Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.

No high-risk avoid candidates in the current Edge sample.

Guardrails

Do not treat a market price as executable fair value without checking depth and spread.
Do not chase a move unless you can name the catalyst and the resolution rule it affects.
Avoid thin, near-resolution, or wording-sensitive markets unless the source-of-truth is clear.
Backtests are mark-to-market snapshots; they exclude fees, fills, taxes, limits, and settlement risk.
Strategy signals are research outputs, not financial advice or trade instructions.

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