Strategy Playbook

Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.

Current read

No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.

Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.

served precomputed precomputed 1m ago
Rows
5000
Markets
256
Signals
146

Fade fast moves

Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.

avoid
Avg
+0.81pp
Hit
35.6%
Trades
236

Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.

Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.

Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Fade extreme prices

Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.

avoid
Avg
-0.01pp
Hit
5.7%
Trades
3316

Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.

Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.

Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.

Momentum follow

Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.

avoid
Avg
-0.81pp
Hit
37.7%
Trades
236

Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.

Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.

Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.

Current setups

Candidates that match the strongest current filters.

Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 100

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $3.4M · liq $1.2M
Usable depth: 3436666 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 100

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $3.2M · liq $495k
Usable depth: 3234506 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17?
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 100

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $2.9M · liq $710k
Usable depth: 2913935 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Spurs vs. Knicks
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 99.6

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 46% / NO 54% · vol $4.8M · liq $4.9M
Usable depth: 4872847 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Spurs vs. Knicks
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 98.9

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 46% / NO 55% · vol $5.2M · liq $4.0M
Usable depth: 5238235 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 97.5

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 55% / NO 46% · vol $3.5M · liq $3.1M
Usable depth: 3503499 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.

Avoid or wait

Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.

No high-risk avoid candidates in the current Edge sample.

Guardrails

Do not treat a market price as executable fair value without checking depth and spread.
Do not chase a move unless you can name the catalyst and the resolution rule it affects.
Avoid thin, near-resolution, or wording-sensitive markets unless the source-of-truth is clear.
Backtests are mark-to-market snapshots; they exclude fees, fills, taxes, limits, and settlement risk.
Strategy signals are research outputs, not financial advice or trade instructions.

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