Strategy Playbook

Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.

Current read

No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.

Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.

served precomputed precomputed 1m ago
Rows
5000
Markets
390
Signals
63

Momentum follow

Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.

neutral
Avg
+0.65pp
Hit
43.1%
Trades
471

Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.

Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.

Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.

Fade extreme prices

Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.

avoid
Avg
-0.00pp
Hit
10.2%
Trades
2630

Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.

Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.

Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.

Fade fast moves

Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.

avoid
Avg
-0.65pp
Hit
25.5%
Trades
471

Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.

Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.

Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Current setups

Candidates that match the strongest current filters.

UFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 95.2

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 48% / NO 52% · vol $699k · liq $132k
Usable depth: 698568 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Bloomfield Hills: Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Gea
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 33/100 Score 95.2

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 50% / NO 50% · vol $514k · liq $284k
Usable depth: 514471 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 89.6

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 43% / NO 57% · vol $503k · liq $156k
Usable depth: 502893 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Liquid 50/50 market; useful for research and news timing
price discovery
Side Research first Intraday to weekly Risk 24/100 Score 88.8

Use news, rules, and surveys before taking a side

needs confirmation YES 42% / NO 58% · vol $697k · liq $246k
Usable depth: 697046 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if you cannot identify a concrete source, rule detail, or timing catalyst.
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Closes in 0d; rules and source-of-truth matter more
closing watch
Side Rules first Hours to days Risk 33/100 Score 88.4

Check resolution criteria before trading the headline

needs confirmation YES 24% / NO 76% · vol $894k · liq $134k
Usable depth: 893613 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if the final resolver is unclear or the market wording has hidden edge cases.
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners
Closes in 0d; rules and source-of-truth matter more
closing watch
Side Rules first Hours to days Risk 33/100 Score 87.9

Check resolution criteria before trading the headline

needs confirmation YES 34% / NO 66% · vol $738k · liq $190k
Usable depth: 737947 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if the final resolver is unclear or the market wording has hidden edge cases.

Avoid or wait

Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.

Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25?
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.

Guardrails

Do not treat a market price as executable fair value without checking depth and spread.
Do not chase a move unless you can name the catalyst and the resolution rule it affects.
Avoid thin, near-resolution, or wording-sensitive markets unless the source-of-truth is clear.
Backtests are mark-to-market snapshots; they exclude fees, fills, taxes, limits, and settlement risk.
Strategy signals are research outputs, not financial advice or trade instructions.

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