Strategy Playbook
Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.
No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.
Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.
Momentum follow
Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.
Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.
Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.
Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.
Fade extreme prices
Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.
Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.
Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.
Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.
Fade fast moves
Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.
Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.
Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.
Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.
Current setups
Candidates that match the strongest current filters.
Check resolution criteria before trading the headline
Check resolution criteria before trading the headline
Check resolution criteria before trading the headline
Avoid or wait
Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.