Strategy Playbook

Backtest-ranked tactics, current setup filters, and avoid/wait flags.

Current read

No strategy has enough clean evidence to be a default entry rule right now.

Use Edge for research and avoid fragile markets until more snapshots accumulate.

served precomputed precomputed 16m ago
Rows
5000
Markets
1012
Signals
138

Momentum follow

Follow the direction of a move only when a credible catalyst is still underpriced.

neutral
Avg
+1.07pp
Hit
40.0%
Trades
120

Setup: A market is moving in one direction across recent snapshots with usable depth.

Confirm: New information is real, unresolved, and not fully reflected in the order book.

Avoid: Do not chase thin-liquidity drift or a move that already priced the full catalyst.

Fade extreme prices

Look for 85%+ or 15%- prices that may be overconfident before final resolution.

avoid
Avg
-0.02pp
Hit
8.4%
Trades
2238

Setup: Market price is extreme but not actually settled.

Confirm: Resolution wording leaves uncertainty that the market is ignoring.

Avoid: Do not fade near-settled markets, expiring markets, or outcomes with an official result already available.

Fade fast moves

Look for a large move, then take the other side only if the catalyst looks weak or misunderstood.

avoid
Avg
-1.07pp
Hit
27.5%
Trades
120

Setup: A market moved quickly over the lookback window and still has enough volume to exit.

Confirm: Primary source does not fully support the move, or rules are being misread.

Avoid: Do not fade if the catalyst directly settles the market or fresh volume keeps confirming the move.

Current setups

Candidates that match the strongest current filters.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Closes in 0d; rules and source-of-truth matter more
closing watch
Side Rules first Hours to days Risk 33/100 Score 93.8

Check resolution criteria before trading the headline

needs confirmation YES 86% / NO 14% · vol $7.0M · liq $75k
Usable depth: 7024006 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if the final resolver is unclear or the market wording has hidden edge cases.
Knicks vs. Hawks
Closes in 0d; rules and source-of-truth matter more
closing watch
Side Rules first Hours to days Risk 33/100 Score 93.2

Check resolution criteria before trading the headline

needs confirmation YES 32% / NO 68% · vol $5.6M · liq $84k
Usable depth: 5583640 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if the final resolver is unclear or the market wording has hidden edge cases.
Penguins vs. Flyers
Closes in 0d; rules and source-of-truth matter more
closing watch
Side Rules first Hours to days Risk 41/100 Score 89.9

Check resolution criteria before trading the headline

needs confirmation YES 90% / NO 10% · vol $2.2M · liq $50k
Usable depth: 2194255 recent depth/volume.
Low integrity-risk score for the current quote.
Risk flag: extreme price.
Risk flag: very close to close.
No linked catalyst in stored news impacts yet.
Skip if the final resolver is unclear or the market wording has hidden edge cases.

Avoid or wait

Fragile markets, high-risk quotes, and weak tactics.

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Lakers vs. Rockets
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Warriors vs. Suns
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Lakers vs. Rockets
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Price may be fragile or easy to move
Risk 82
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.
near-resolution price very close to close resolved or closed
High integrity risk; treat as avoid/wait.

Guardrails

Do not treat a market price as executable fair value without checking depth and spread.
Do not chase a move unless you can name the catalyst and the resolution rule it affects.
Avoid thin, near-resolution, or wording-sensitive markets unless the source-of-truth is clear.
Backtests are mark-to-market snapshots; they exclude fees, fills, taxes, limits, and settlement risk.
Strategy signals are research outputs, not financial advice or trade instructions.

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