US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace dea...
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AI-analyzedRevelations of military strikes against Iran by regional US allies suggest a heightened state of conflict that is fundamentally at odds with a permanent peace settlement.
The lack of a breakthrough in a high-level meeting intended for a 'final determination' indicates significant diplomatic friction and reduces the likelihood of a treaty by the deadline.
Trump's 'final determination' regarding the Iran deal historically signals a hardline stance or withdrawal, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a permanent peace treaty being signed by 2026.
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