Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (F...

Vol 24h: $600.0K Total: $3.1M Liq: $399.0K Ends: 2026-09-16 Trade on Polymarket →
1%
Yes
99%
No
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1%
Yes
99%
No

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AI estimate

Given the Fed's historical cautious approach and the long-term inflation target, a sudden 50+ bps cut is highly improbable unless a severe economic crisis emerges, which is not currently anticipated.

The market is overwhelmingly pricing in no significant rate cuts by September 2026, suggesting investors believe the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy or implement only minor adjustments. Given the low "Yes" probability, a bet on "Yes" could offer substantial returns if economic conditions deteriorate sharply and unexpectedly, forcing the Fed's hand, but this is a high-risk, low-probability wager.

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1% Yes 99% No
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