Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (F...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given the broader macroeconomic trajectory of returning inflation toward target and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, a 25 bps rate hike in September 2026 is significantly less likely than rate cuts or a hold.
Edge: The market prices an unrealistic 50% probability on an interest rate hike during an expected neutral-to-easing monetary policy environment.
With the
News Impact
AI-analyzedDovish Fed rhetoric dampens long-term expectations for future rate hikes, marginally lowering the probability of a rate increase in September 2026.
Hawkish commentary putting rate hikes back on the table slightly boosts the likelihood of future rate increases by the Fed.
Rising yields and oil-driven inflation pressures increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve might implement further rate hikes.
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