US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace dea...

Vol 24h: $16.8M Total: $57.3M Liq: $915.6K Ends: 2026-06-15 Trade on Polymarket →
82%
Yes
18%
No
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82%
Yes
18%
No

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News Impact

AI-analyzed
Trump scraps threat of 20% fee on Hormuz cargo as US prepares to resume blockade of Iran ports

The resumption of a port blockade indicates a return to maximum pressure tactics, significantly undermining the likelihood of a permanent peace deal by the deadline.

8/10
Strait of Hormuz 'faultline' exposes weakness of the US-Iran deal

Public exposure of fundamental weaknesses in existing agreements suggests that a durable, permanent peace deal is less stable and less likely to be finalized.

6/10
Trump returns to war with Iran from ‘position of strength’ - Washington Examiner

A return to a 'war' stance and aggressive rhetoric from the US leadership significantly decreases the likelihood of a permanent peace treaty within the timeframe.

9/10

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82% Yes 18% No
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