Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market w...

Vol 24h: $163.5K Total: $999.6K Liq: $74.3K Ends: 2026-08-15 Trade on Polymarket →
2%
Yes
98%
No
Market tracker

Save this market to your VoxOdds watchlist. We use market follows and outbound demand to decide which setups deserve deeper research notes.

Watchlist

Polymarket Odds

On-chain price
2%
Yes
98%
No

Community Lobby

Rep-weighted
No community predictions yet. Be the first to lobby!

What do you think?

Make your prediction — see how the crowd voted after

Anonymous • One vote per person

Share: Twitter/X Reddit
AI
AI Analysis Gemini
99%
AI estimate

With the deadline falling on today's date and no major sudden escalation signaling a formal withdrawal, Iran is overwhelmingly likely to maintain its current diplomatic stance through the end of the day.

With "No" priced at 98% and high liquidity ($163k+ 24h volume), the market offers a low-risk, ~2% yield for capital parking, but the capital inefficiency and tail-risk of a sudden diplomatic rupture make it unattractive for high-growth strategies. Investors seeking asymmetric upside should either avoid the locked-up capital on "No" or place a speculative micro-bet on "Yes" at 2% as an ultra-cheap geopolitical hedge.

Embed this market </>

Share Your Insight

Set a username in the top nav to start sharing insights.

Community Insights

0 insights • Sorted by quality × reputation

No insights yet

Be the first to share your take on this market.

2% Yes 98% No
Trade on Polymarket

Get the edge — weekly

Top divergences, biggest movers, and survey insights. No spam.