US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market c...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given it is July 29, 2026, and no effective ceasefire has been announced or widely reported, it is highly improbable one will materialize and be effective in the next two days.
The market heavily favors a continued lack of effective ceasefire, with a high volume indicating strong conviction and liquidity for those looking to short "Yes." Investors should consider hedging against a potential, albeit unlikely, "Yes" outcome by exploring options that benefit from de-escalation, given the substantial implied upside if the 24% probability is mispriced.
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