Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for July 22 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers wi...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
While the Dodgers are strong, an 88% probability against any MLB team, even the Phillies, seems slightly overvalued given the inherent variance in baseball.
Edge: I believe the market is overestimating the Dodgers' probability by 13 percentage points, suggesting a slight edge on the Phillies at 12%.
The extremely high implied probability for the Dodgers (88%) suggests this market is likely for a specific event within the game, such as winning a particular inning or a prop bet, rather than the outright game winner; thus, investors should investigate the exact market terms before considering a position. Given the high volume, if it is an outright game winner market, the odds represent a significant mispricing or a market anomaly, potentially offering a rare arbitrage opportunity by betting against the Dodgers if the actual game odds are more balanced.
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