Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given today's date is July 22, 2026, and the market asks if the ceasefire 'continues through' this date, it implies the ceasefire must have been ongoing up to and including today, which is highly unlikely for a conflict of this nature to remain stable for over two years.
Edge: The market odds of 94% 'Yes' seem to misunderstand the 'through July 22' aspect in conjunction with the current date, as a ceasefire continuing 'through' today means it must have been active and unbroken up to and including this very moment, which is a very high bar for such volatile geopolitical actors over a two-year period.
The market's overwhelming 94% "Yes" odds suggest investors are pricing in a near certainty of the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through July 22nd, implying little perceived risk of escalation. For those who believe even a small chance of renewed conflict exists (e.g., 10% or more), buying "No" at 6% offers a high-reward, low-probability bet against current market consensus.
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