Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given today's date is July 25, 2026, the ceasefire has already continued through the specified date, making a 'No' outcome impossible.
This market heavily favors a continued ceasefire, suggesting investors are pricing in a near certainty of no major escalation by July 25th, which could indicate a lack of perceived immediate geopolitical risk for assets sensitive to Middle Eastern conflict. For investors seeking to hedge against an unforeseen, low-probability but high-impact event, a small "No" position could offer significant returns if the ceasefire breaks, but the current odds imply a high cost for this tail risk protection.
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