Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...

Vol 24h: $778.2K Total: $1.6M Liq: $141.6K Ends: 2026-07-25 Trade on Polymarket →
98%
Yes
2%
No
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98%
Yes
2%
No

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AI Analysis Gemini
99%
AI estimate

Given today's date is July 25, 2026, the ceasefire has already continued through the specified date, making a 'No' outcome impossible.

This market heavily favors a continued ceasefire, suggesting investors are pricing in a near certainty of no major escalation by July 25th, which could indicate a lack of perceived immediate geopolitical risk for assets sensitive to Middle Eastern conflict. For investors seeking to hedge against an unforeseen, low-probability but high-impact event, a small "No" position could offer significant returns if the ceasefire breaks, but the current odds imply a high cost for this tail risk protection.

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98% Yes 2% No
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