US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, o...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given the current date is July 28, 2026, and the market asks about an announcement by July 31, 2026, it is highly improbable that the US would announce a halt to ongoing offensive operations in Iran within such a short timeframe, especially if such operations were significant enough to warrant a market.
Edge: The market's 95% 'Yes' probability seems to misunderstand the temporal constraint and the nature of such a significant geopolitical announcement within a 3-day window.
The extremely high "Yes" odds (95%) suggest the market has priced in a near certainty of a halt, offering little upside for a "Yes" bet and significant downside if the event doesn't occur. Smart money would look for value in a "No" bet, despite the low probability, as a successful outcome would yield a substantial return on a small investment, especially given the $777k daily volume implying liquidity for larger positions.
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