Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given that today's date is July 24, 2026, the ceasefire has either continued through this date or it has not, making the probability of it continuing through today's date a certainty if it has indeed held.
This market presents a high-risk, low-reward proposition for investors, as the 99% "Yes" odds mean a correct bet yields only a 1% profit, making it unattractive even for those confident in continued ceasefire. The substantial daily volume of over $420,000 suggests significant capital is tied up in a bet with minimal upside, indicating either a strong desire for hedging or an inefficient allocation of capital by some participants.
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