Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given today's date is July 29, 2026, the ceasefire has already continued through the specified date, making its continuation a certainty.
This market is effectively dead, pricing in a near 100% certainty of the ceasefire continuing, making it unsuitable for investors seeking actionable insights or significant returns. The extremely low "No" probability (1%) offers a high-risk, low-reward proposition for a black swan event, but the minimal potential upside doesn't justify the capital allocation given the market's current conviction.
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