Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market cre...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given it is August 2nd, and 'normal' traffic implies a sustained period without disruption, it is highly improbable for the Strait of Hormuz to return to a state considered 'normal' by August 15th.
This market presents an **asymmetric, high-risk opportunity** for investors who believe traffic *will* return to normal, as the 3% "Yes" price offers a 32x return if proven correct, despite the market's strong bearish sentiment. Conversely, the high volume and 97% "No" price suggest that shorting "Yes" is **not an actionable strategy for significant returns** due to the minimal profit potential and high risk of a black swan event causing a sudden price reversal.
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