US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States governmen...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given today's date is August 7, 2026, and no such announcement has been made, it is highly improbable for it to occur by this date.
This market heavily favors the blockade remaining in place, but the significant daily volume suggests active trading and potential for price shifts. Investors could consider a small "Yes" position if they believe there's a higher than 15% chance of a diplomatic breakthrough or a change in US policy towards Iran by the deadline, given the potential for outsized returns if the low probability event occurs.
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