S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 31?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, July 31, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most rece...

Vol 24h: $66.6K Total: $66.6K Liq: $25.6K Ends: 2026-07-31 Trade on Polymarket →
99%
Up
1%
Down
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On-chain price
99%
Up
1%
Down

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AI
AI Analysis Gemini
50%
AI estimate

Given that today is July 31st, the market has already closed or is about to close, making it impossible to predict with certainty without real-time data.

Edge: The market odds of 99% Up are unrealistic for a prediction on the day of close without knowing the current market state; a 50/50 chance is more appropriate for an uninformed prediction at this point.

AI DISAGREES

This market reflects extreme bullish sentiment with a 99% "Up" probability, suggesting investors believe a significant S&P 500 decline by July 31st is highly improbable. Given the low "Down" probability (1%) and substantial 24-hour volume, a bet on "Down" offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for investors who believe the market is severely underpricing tail risk or an unexpected negative catalyst.

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