Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...

Vol 24h: $650.5K Total: $650.5K Liq: $84.0K Ends: 2026-08-01 Trade on Polymarket →
95%
Yes
5%
No
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95%
Yes
5%
No

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AI Analysis Gemini
99%
AI estimate

Given that today is August 1, 2026, and a ceasefire has already continued through this date, it is highly probable it will continue through August 1.

The extremely high "Yes" odds (95%) and significant 24-hour volume ($650,480) suggest the market has priced in a near certainty of the ceasefire continuing, making a "Yes" bet offer minimal upside for the risk of an unforeseen event. Investors seeking to capitalize on a low-probability, high-impact event could consider a small "No" bet, as any ceasefire breach would lead to substantial returns, while acknowledging the high likelihood of losing the premium.

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