Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Given the current date of August 2nd, 2026, and the market's focus on August 3rd, it is highly improbable for a ceasefire to break in less than 24 hours without any preceding major news or escalation.
The market's overwhelming 97% "Yes" for a ceasefire continuing through August 3 suggests investors believe the probability of an immediate, full-scale military conflict escalating within the next two months is extremely low. Given the high volume and near-certainty, this market offers little actionable upside for "Yes" bets but could present a highly asymmetric, though very low probability, opportunity for "No" bets if new, unforeseen geopolitical events rapidly emerge.
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