Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed ...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Hitting such a narrow window of 20 tweets over a full week is statistically very unlikely given the high variance in Musk's daily posting volume.
Given Elon Musk's highly volatile posting behavior and the extremely narrow target window, the 2% probability for "Yes" is fair, making the 98% "No" side an inefficient trade that locks up capital for negligible returns. Investors should avoid taking a position here and instead deploy liquidity into broader range markets or closer-dated contracts with better risk-adjusted yields.
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