Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 1...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
With 98% implied market probability on the resolution day, the price trend for September 17 is effectively cemented.
With "Up" trading at an overwhelming 98% probability, the risk-to-reward ratio for long positions is poor, yielding negligible returns while exposing capital to high tail risk. Investors should avoid buying "Up" and instead consider a small, asymmetric lottery-ticket allocation on "Down" at 2% odds as a high-reward volatility hedge, or simply deploy liquidity into higher-yielding opportunities.
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