Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this ma...
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Anonymous • One vote per person
Under the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, Donald Trump is term-limited and constitutionally ineligible to be elected president in 2028 after serving two terms.
Given the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit making a 2028 Trump presidency effectively impossible without a constitutional crisis, holding a "No" position is near-certain to pay out, though tying up capital for four years for a 1% nominal yield yields a severely negative real return. Investors should avoid locking up liquidity on "No" and instead only exploit this market by providing liquidity or actively selling "Yes" if misinformed speculative volume creates irrational, short-term price spikes.
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