Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoe
With Tiafoe commanding a 97% implied probability amid heavy $543k volume, the market reflects a near-certain victory (likely deep in-match or already decided), leaving virtually zero upside in backing the favorite. Investors should avoid taking on extreme risk for a 3% return on Tiafoe, making a tiny, speculative hedge on Sonego at 3% the only viable—though highly improbable—value play.
About this market
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Frances Tiafoe in the Cincinnati Open, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Sonego' if Lorenzo Sonego advances against Frances Tiafoe. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Lorenzo Sonego. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, th
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Market resolves: 2026-08-23