Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
Given the extreme difficulty of predicting Elon Musk’s exact weekly tweet count more than a year in advance within a narrow 20-tweet band, the 4% probability for "Yes" is still likely overpriced. Investors should avoid tying up capital in "No" for an annualized return of roughly 4% over the long time horizon, but could look to short "Yes" if liquidity allows or wait closer to August 2026 to trade the range based on his then-current posting habits.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by
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Market resolves: 2026-08-28