Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
With high 24-hour volume of $206,086, the 4% probability on this extremely narrow tweet range nearly two years in the future offers an asymmetric, albeit capital-locking, yield of ~4.1% by taking the **"No"** position. However, active investors should avoid this market altogether, as locking liquidity until September 2026 for a marginal 4% return carries an unacceptable opportunity cost and tail risk relative to standard risk-free assets.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 18 12:00 PM ET to September 25, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captur
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Market resolves: 2026-09-25