Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
This market suggests investors are pricing in a 70% probability of continued de-escalation between Israel and Iran through August 2nd, indicating a significant belief in the status quo holding. For investors looking to capitalize, consider selling "Yes" contracts if you believe a major geopolitical event or miscalculation is likely before August 2nd, as the current 30% "No" probability might be undervalued in the face of regional volatility.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or
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Market resolves: 2026-08-02