Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
The market's overwhelming "No" at 96% and substantial volume suggest a high probability of continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, implying investors should hedge against or prepare for sustained geopolitical risk and potential supply chain impacts. Consider shorting shipping stocks or investing in defense-related assets, as the market is pricing in a prolonged period of instability.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-da
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Market resolves: 2026-08-31