Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
The market currently prices a return to normal by August 31st as highly unlikely (16%), suggesting investors are heavily discounting a quick resolution to current tensions. Investors believing traffic will normalize by then should consider buying "Yes" shares, as their current low price offers significant upside if the situation improves faster than anticipated by the broader market.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-da
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Market resolves: 2026-08-31