Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
The overwhelming "No" odds (99%) and substantial daily volume ($479k) suggest investors strongly believe Strait of Hormuz traffic will NOT return to normal by July 31st, implying a high probability of continued disruption. Investors could consider hedging existing long positions in oil or shipping companies, or explore short positions in related assets, given the market's strong conviction about ongoing instability.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day
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Market resolves: 2026-07-31