Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Given the high volume and strong "No" odds (77%), investors are clearly pricing in significant continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This suggests a need to stress-test portfolios against prolonged supply chain issues and consider hedging strategies or investments in sectors less exposed to this specific geopolitical risk.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7
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Market resolves: 2026-09-30