U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
The high "Yes" probability (74%) and substantial trading volume ($564k in 24h) suggest strong market confidence in a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside the U.S. by July 31st; investors should consider this a high-probability event and allocate capital accordingly if this outcome aligns with their portfolio's risk/reward profile, or seek hedging strategies if they hold positions sensitive to such geopolitical actions. Conversely, the 26% "No" still presents a significant tail risk for those betting against the operation, indicating a need for careful consideration of the potential for the event to not occur despite the market's lean.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not
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Market resolves: 2026-07-31