US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Given the extremely low "Yes" probability of 8% and high trading volume, investors should consider a small, speculative "Yes" position if they believe the market is underpricing a potential diplomatic breakthrough, as a successful outcome would yield a significant return. Conversely, a "No" position, while offering a smaller return, represents a more conservative bet on the continuation of current geopolitical realities, but with a higher probability of success.
About this market
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw
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Market resolves: 2026-08-15