US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
The current market odds suggest a 60% probability that the US will *not* announce an end to the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, indicating significant skepticism about near-term geopolitical de-escalation. Investors bullish on a resolution or a surprise diplomatic breakthrough could consider buying "Yes" shares, as the 40% probability offers a potentially high return if the market is underpricing the likelihood of such an event.
About this market
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw
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Market resolves: 2026-08-31