Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
This market indicates an overwhelming consensus against Count Binface winning, reflected in the 1% "Yes" odds and significant trading volume, suggesting sophisticated investors have already priced in his extremely low probability. Investors should avoid the "Yes" side due to the near-zero implied probability and consider the "No" side only if they believe there's a mispricing that understates the certainty of his loss, which is highly unlikely given the current odds and volume.
About this market
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this mark
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Market resolves: 2026-08-13