Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
The market heavily predicts Kai and Speed will **not** beat the Minecraft challenge, with an 82% "No" probability, suggesting investors should consider shorting or avoiding "Yes" positions due to the strong consensus against it. Given the high trading volume of over $700k, this is a well-capitalized and likely efficient market, implying that significant new positive information for Kai and Speed would be required to justify a "Yes" investment at this point.
About this market
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge live on stream between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, th
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Market resolves: 2026-08-17