Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This market presents an **extremely low-value "Yes" opportunity** at 92%, as the inherent uncertainty of a 39-year-old Messi winning a major individual award is far greater than 8%, despite his legacy. Investors should **consider shorting "Yes" or buying "No"**, as the market is likely overpricing Messi's chances given the numerous factors against him (age, potential team performance, emergence of new talent, etc.), offering a significant arbitrage opportunity if his true probability is closer to 20-30%.
About this market
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Golden Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this marke
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Market resolves: 2026-07-20