Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
At an 11% implied probability, Rubio is priced as a top-tier Republican contender—likely buoyed by his recent high-profile cabinet appointment—creating an overvalued position given the severe historical headwinds non-incumbent nominees face in winning the presidency. Investors should look to take a "No" position at 89% to capture safe long-term yield or short "Yes" on any further temporary news-cycle spikes, as liquidity ($153k 24h volume) is currently strong enough to build a position before the field inevitably widens.
About this market
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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Market resolves: 2028-11-07