Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
The significant volume on the "No" side, despite the low probability of "Yes," suggests smart money is heavily betting against Farage achieving 80%, indicating a potential overestimation of his support in Clacton. Investors should consider shorting "Yes" or buying "No," as the market implies a strong belief that Farage's vote share will fall notably short of the 80% threshold.
About this market
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are no
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Market resolves: 2027-06-30