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Exclusive | The U.A.E.’s Secret Role in the War Involved Dozens of Strikes on Iran - WSJ

Revelations of military strikes against Iran by regional US allies suggest a heightened state of conflict that is fundamentally at odds with a permanent peace settlement.

No deal announced after Trump meeting to make 'final determination' on Iran

The lack of a breakthrough in a high-level meeting intended for a 'final determination' indicates significant diplomatic friction and reduces the likelihood of a treaty by the deadline.

Trump holds meeting to make 'final determination' on Iran deal

Trump's 'final determination' regarding the Iran deal historically signals a hardline stance or withdrawal, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a permanent peace treaty being signed by 2026.

US and Iran 'very close' to deal but 'not there yet', Vance says

A statement from the Vice President-elect indicating that the two nations are 'very close' to a deal significantly boosts the probability of a formal agreement within the 2026 timeframe.

US says Iran launched ‘egregious ceasefire violation,’ testing fragile truce - Politico

A major ceasefire violation severely damages the trust and stability necessary to negotiate a permanent peace treaty.